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Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Andrew Jesson , Alyson Douglas , Peter Manshausen , Maëlys Solal , Nicolai Meinshausen , Philip Stier , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

We study causal inference in experiments and quasi-experiments, where the economic outcome is imperfectly measured by a remotely sensed variable. The remotely sensed variable is low-cost, scalable, and predictive of the economic outcome in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Ashesh Rambachan , Rahul Singh , Davide Viviano

Debates about whether development projects improve living conditions persist, partly because observational estimates can be biased by incomplete adjustment and because reliable outcome data are scarce at the neighborhood level. We address…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-26 Adel Daoud , Cindy Conlin , Connor T. Jerzak

Studies in environmental and epidemiological sciences are often spatially varying and observational in nature with the aim of establishing cause and effect relationships. One of the major challenges with such studies is the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-16 Sayli Pokal , Yawen Guan , Honglang Wang , Yuzhen Zhou

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of multiple data sources for statistical analyses. We consider estimation of causal effects combining big main data with unmeasured confounders and smaller validation data with…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Shu Yang , Peng Ding

Traditional disaster analysis and modelling tools for assessing the severity of a disaster are predictive in nature. Based on the past observational data, these tools prescribe how the current input state (e.g., environmental conditions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Saketh Vishnubhatla , Alimohammad Beigi , Rui Heng Foo , Umang Goel , Ujun Jeong , Bohan Jiang , Adrienne Raglin , Huan Liu

Most research questions in agricultural and applied economics are of a causal nature, i.e., how one or more variables (e.g., policies, prices, the weather) affect one or more other variables (e.g., income, crop yields, pollution). Only some…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-05 Arne Henningsen , Guy Low , David Wuepper , Tobias Dalhaus , Hugo Storm , Dagim Belay , Stefan Hirsch

A recent report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlights that water-related disasters have caused the highest human losses among natural disasters over the past 50 years, with over 91\% of deaths occurring in low-income…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Ting-Yu Dai , Hayato Ushijima-Mwesigwa

Recent work has focused on the potential and pitfalls of causal identification in observational studies with multiple simultaneous treatments. Building on previous work, we show that even if the conditional distribution of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Jiajing Zheng , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

We address the problem of inferring the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome across space, using observational data. The data is possibly subject to unmeasured confounding variables which, in a standard approach, must be adjusted for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-04 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön

Poverty maps are essential tools for governments and NGOs to track socioeconomic changes and adequately allocate infrastructure and services in places in need. Sensor and online crowd-sourced data combined with machine learning methods have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-07 Lisette Espín-Noboa , János Kertész , Márton Karsai

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is challenging. Although auxiliary variables, such as instrumental variables, are commonly used to identify causal effects, they are often unavailable in practice due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Yue Zhang , Feng Xie , Yangbo He

A common assumption in causal inference from observational data is that there is no hidden confounding. Yet it is, in general, impossible to verify this assumption from a single dataset. Under the assumption of independent causal mechanisms…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-07 Rickard K. A. Karlsson , Jesse H. Krijthe

The combination of high-resolution satellite imagery and machine learning have proven useful in many sustainability-related tasks, including poverty prediction, infrastructure measurement, and forest monitoring. However, the accuracy…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-01-06 Kumar Ayush , Burak Uzkent , Kumar Tanmay , Marshall Burke , David Lobell , Stefano Ermon

This paper develops a general causal inference method for treatment effects models with noisily measured confounders. The key feature is that a large set of noisy measurements are linked with the underlying latent confounders through an…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-14 Yingjie Feng

Machine learning practice is often impacted by confounders. Confounding can be particularly severe in remote digital health studies where the participants self-select to enter the study. While many different confounding adjustment…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-14 Elias Chaibub Neto , Meghasyam Tummalacherla , Lara Mangravite , Larsson Omberg

Spatial interference and spatial confounding are two major issues inhibiting precise causal estimates when dealing with observational spatial data. Moreover, the definition and interpretation of spatial confounding remain arguable in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Isqeel Ogunsola , Olatunji Johnson

Inferring causal relationships from observational data is rarely straightforward, but the problem is especially difficult in high dimensions. For these applications, causal discovery algorithms typically require parametric restrictions or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-29 David S. Watson , Ricardo Silva

In real-world studies, the collected confounders may suffer from measurement error. Although mismeasurement of confounders is typically unintentional -- originating from sources such as human oversight or imprecise machinery -- deliberate…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-20 Jeffrey Zhang , Junu Lee
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