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Data-driven societal event forecasting methods exploit relevant historical information to predict future events. These methods rely on historical labeled data and cannot accurately predict events when data are limited or of poor quality.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Songgaojun Deng , Huzefa Rangwala , Yue Ning

The estimation of causal effects with observational data continues to be a very active research area. In recent years, researchers have developed new frameworks which use machine learning to relax classical assumptions necessary for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Jonathan Fuhr , Philipp Berens , Dominik Papies

This paper studies the task of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in causal panel data models, in the presence of covariate effects. We propose a novel Covariate-Adjusted Deep Causal Learning (CoDEAL) for panel data models, that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-28 Guanhao Zhou , Yuefeng Han , Xiufan Yu

Monocular depth estimation (MDE) is a challenging task in computer vision, often hindered by the cost and scarcity of high-quality labeled datasets. We tackle this challenge using auxiliary datasets from related vision tasks for an…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-14 Alessio Quercia , Erenus Yildiz , Zhuo Cao , Kai Krajsek , Abigail Morrison , Ira Assent , Hanno Scharr

Most neural models of causality assume static causal graphs, failing to capture the dynamic and sparse nature of physical interactions where causal relationships emerge and dissolve over time. We introduce the Causal Process Framework and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Turan Orujlu , Christian Gumbsch , Martin V. Butz , Charley M Wu

Analyzing data from multiple sources offers valuable opportunities to improve the estimation efficiency of causal estimands. However, this analysis also poses many challenges due to population heterogeneity and data privacy constraints.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-23 Rong Zhao , Jason Falvey , Xu Shi , Vernon M. Chinchilli , Chixiang Chen

Robust characterization of dynamic causal interactions in multivariate biomedical signals is essential for advancing computational and algorithmic methods in biomedical imaging. Conventional approaches, such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-17 Farwa Abbas , Wei Dai , Zoran Cvetkovic , Verity McClelland

This paper considers clustered multi-task compressive sensing, a hierarchical model that solves multiple compressive sensing tasks by finding clusters of tasks that leverage shared information to mutually improve signal reconstruction. The…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-03 Alexander Lin , Demba Ba

Mediation analysis has traditionally focused on outcome-level summary contrasts, such as mean effects, which may obscure substantial distributional changes induced by complex and nonlinear causal mechanisms. We propose Distributional Causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Jinlun Zhang , Haoneng Huang , Zishu Zhan , Chunquan Ou

We address the problem of estimating causal effects from observational data in the presence of network confounding, a setting where both treatment assignment and observed outcomes of individuals may be influenced by their neighbors within a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar

Causal effect estimation is important for many tasks in the natural and social sciences. We design algorithms for the continuous partial identification problem: bounding the effects of multivariate, continuous treatments when unmeasured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-18 Kirtan Padh , Jakob Zeitler , David Watson , Matt Kusner , Ricardo Silva , Niki Kilbertus

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights into the experiment outcomes over conventional methods focusing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Tomu Hirata , Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui , Shingo Uto

Cognitive diagnosis is a crucial task in computational education, aimed at evaluating students' proficiency levels across various knowledge concepts through exercises. Current models, however, primarily rely on students' answered exercises,…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Haiping Ma , Changqian Wang , Hengshu Zhu , Shangshang Yang , Xiaoming Zhang , Xingyi Zhang

The R package CVEK introduces a suite of flexible machine learning models and robust hypothesis tests for learning the joint nonlinear effects of multiple covariates in limited samples. It implements the Cross-validated Ensemble of Kernels…

Computation · Statistics 2020-12-22 Wenying Deng , Jeremiah Zhe Liu , Erin Lake , Brent A. Coull

This paper introduces CMASE, a framework for Computational Multi-Agent Society Experiments that integrates generative agent-based modeling with virtual ethnographic methods to support researcher embedding, interactive participation, and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Hanzhong Zhang , Muhua Huang , Jindong Wang

The simultaneous application of multiple treatments is increasingly common in many fields, such as healthcare and marketing. In such scenarios, it is important to estimate the single treatment effects and the interaction treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Yuki Murakami , Takumi Hattori , Kohsuke Kubota

There has been considerable recent interest in estimating heterogeneous causal effects. In this paper, we study conditional average partial causal effects (CAPCE) to reveal the heterogeneity of causal effects with continuous treatment. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Yuta Kawakami , Manabu Kuroki , Jin Tian

In the quest for accurate and interpretable AI models, eXplainable AI (XAI) has become crucial. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) stand out as an advanced XAI method because of their ability to synergistically combine and exploit both expert…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Marios Tyrovolas , Nikolaos D. Kallimanis , Chrysostomos Stylios

Modern machine learning (ML) methods typically fail to adequately capture causal information. Consequently, such models do not handle data distributional shifts, are vulnerable to adversarial examples, and often learn spurious correlations.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-27 Rishi Goel , Casey R. Myers , Sally Shrapnel

Modern deep learning models excel at pattern recognition but remain fundamentally limited by their reliance on spurious correlations, leading to poor generalization and a demand for massive datasets. We argue that a key ingredient for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-17 Mohamed Zayaan S