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The standard approach to answering an identifiable causal-effect query (e.g., $P(Y|do(X)$) when given a causal diagram and observational data is to first generate an estimand, or probabilistic expression over the observable variables, which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Anna Raichev , Alexander Ihler , Jin Tian , Rina Dechter

The recent availability of huge, many-dimensional data sets, like those arising from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), provides many opportunities for strengthening causal inference. One popular approach is to utilize these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-21 Ioan Gabriel Bucur , Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

Causal inference in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates presents significant challenges. We introduce CausalBGM, an AI-powered Bayesian generative modeling approach that captures the causal relationship among covariates,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-23 Qiao Liu , Wing Hung Wong

Current causal discovery approaches require restrictive model assumptions in the absence of interventional data to ensure structure identifiability. These assumptions often do not hold in real-world applications leading to a loss of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-25 Anish Dhir , Ruby Sedgwick , Avinash Kori , Ben Glocker , Mark van der Wilk

Causal concept effect estimation is gaining increasing interest in the field of interpretable machine learning. This general approach explains the behaviors of machine learning models by estimating the causal effect of human-understandable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-15 Jifan Gao , Guanhua Chen

How can we understand classification decisions made by deep neural networks? Many existing explainability methods rely solely on correlations and fail to account for confounding, which may result in potentially misleading explanations. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Yash Goyal , Amir Feder , Uri Shalit , Been Kim

Analysts often use data-driven approaches to supplement their substantive knowledge when selecting covariates for causal effect estimation. Multiple variable selection procedures tailored for causal effect estimation have been devised in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-27 Denis Talbot , Claudia Beaudoin

In recent years, the development of technologies for causal inference with privacy preservation of distributed data has gained considerable attention. Many existing methods for distributed data focus on resolving the lack of subjects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-18 Yuji Kawamata , Ryoki Motai , Yukihiko Okada , Akira Imakura , Tetsuya Sakurai

Causal effects are often characterized with population summaries. These might provide an incomplete picture when there are heterogeneous treatment effects across subgroups. Since the subgroup structure is typically unknown, it is more…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Kwangho Kim , Jisu Kim , Edward H. Kennedy

Causal effect estimation under observational studies is challenging due to the lack of ground truth data and treatment assignment bias. Though various methods exist in literature for addressing this problem, most of them ignore…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Abhinav Thorat , Ravi Kolla , Niranjan Pedanekar

This paper studies a panel data setting where the goal is to estimate causal effects of an intervention by predicting the counterfactual values of outcomes for treated units, had they not received the treatment. Several approaches have been…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-03-26 Susan Athey , Mohsen Bayati , Guido Imbens , Zhaonan Qu

Estimating causal effects from observational data remains a fundamental challenge in causal inference, especially in the presence of latent confounders. This paper focuses on estimating causal effects in Gaussian Linear Structural Causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Aurghya Maiti , Prateek Jain

Causal inference has gained much popularity in recent years, with interests ranging from academic, to industrial, to educational, and all in between. Concurrently, the study and usage of neural networks has also grown profoundly (albeit at…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-07 Demetrios Papakostas , Andrew Herren , P. Richard Hahn , Francisco Castillo

Adjusting for confounding and imbalance when establishing statistical relationships is an increasingly important task, and causal inference methods have emerged as the most popular tool to achieve this. Causal inference has been developed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-20 Daisuke Kurisu , Yidong Zhou , Taisuke Otsu , Hans-Georg Müller

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) are widely used to evaluate group-level interventions and increasingly collect multiple outcomes capturing complementary dimensions of benefit and risk. Investigators often seek a single global summary of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Xinyuan Chen , Fan Li

Causal effect estimation (CEE) provides a crucial tool for predicting the unobserved counterfactual outcome for an entity. As CEE relaxes the requirement for ``perfect'' counterfactual samples (e.g., patients with identical attributes and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Hechuan Wen , Tong Chen , Guanhua Ye , Li Kheng Chai , Shazia Sadiq , Hongzhi Yin

We propose causal effect estimators based on empirical Fr\'{e}chet means and operator-valued kernels, tailored to functional data spaces. These methods address the challenges of high-dimensionality, sequential ordering, and model complexity…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Yordan P. Raykov , Hengrui Luo , Justin D. Strait , Wasiur R. KhudaBukhsh

Estimating the Individual Treatment Effect from observational data, defined as the difference between outcomes with and without treatment or intervention, while observing just one of both, is a challenging problems in causal learning. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-07 Céline Beji , Michaël Bon , Florian Yger , Jamal Atif

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Wasim Ahmad , Maha Shadaydeh , Joachim Denzler