Related papers: Semiparametric inference using fractional posterio…

We present a multi-fidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional…

This study investigates the variational posterior convergence rates of inverse problems for partial differential equations (PDEs) with parameters in Besov spaces $B_{pp}^\alpha$ ($p \geq 1$) which are modeled naturally in a Bayesian manner…

This note considers a finite dimensional statistical model for the Calder\'on problem with piecewise constant conductivities. In this setting it is shown that injectivity of the forward map and its linearisation suffice to prove the…

We investigate the convergence rates of variational posterior distributions for statistical inverse problems involving nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). Departing from exact Bayesian inference, variational inference…

It is shown that the fiducial distribution in a group model, or more generally a quasigroup model, determines the optimal equivariant frequentist inference procedures. The proof does not rely on existence of invariant measures, and…

Consider binary observations whose response probability is an unknown smooth function of a set of covariates. Suppose that a prior on the response probability function is induced by a Gaussian process mapped to the unit interval through a…

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as promising foundation models for prediction from tabular datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance on small to moderate data sizes without tuning. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian…

Divide-and-conquer based methods for Bayesian inference provide a general approach for tractable posterior inference when the sample size is large. These methods divide the data into smaller subsets, sample from the posterior distribution…

We propose a way to construct fiducial distributions for a multidimensional parameter using a step-by-step conditional procedure related to the inferential importance of the components of the parameter. For discrete models, in which the…

In this work, we adopt a general framework based on the Gibbs posterior to update belief distributions for inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The Gibbs posterior formulation is a generalization of standard…

Generalized likelihoods are commonly used to obtain consistent estimators with attractive computational and robustness properties. Formally, any generalized likelihood can be used to define a generalized posterior distribution, but an…

We analyze the posterior contraction rates of parameters in Bayesian models via the Langevin diffusion process, in particular by controlling moments of the stochastic process and taking limits. Analogous to the non-asymptotic analysis of…

We consider the problem of constructing Bayesian based confidence sets for linear functionals in the inverse Gaussian white noise model. We work with a scale of Gaussian priors indexed by a regularity hyper-parameter and apply the…

Between Bayesian and frequentist inference, it's commonly believed that the former is for cases where one has a prior and the latter is for cases where one has no prior. But the prior/no-prior classification isn't exhaustive, and most…

This paper develops a generalized (quasi-) Bayes framework for conditional moment restriction models, where the parameter of interest is a nonparametric structural function of endogenous variables. We establish contraction rates for a class…

The proposal and study of dependent prior processes has been a major research focus in the recent Bayesian nonparametric literature. In this paper, we introduce a flexible class of dependent nonparametric priors, investigate their…

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

In [14,26], new approximation classes of self-referential functions are introduced as fractal versions of the classes of polynomials and rational functions. As a sequel, in the present article, we define a new approximation class consisting…

This invited paper proposes and discusses several Bayesian attempts at nonparametric and semiparametric density estimation. The main categories of these ideas are as follows: 1) Build a nonparametric prior around a given parametric model.…

Posterior contractions rates (PCRs) strengthen the notion of Bayesian consistency, quantifying the speed at which the posterior distribution concentrates on arbitrarily small neighborhoods of the true model, with probability tending to 1 or…