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Understanding socio-academic and economic factors influencing students' performance is crucial for effective educational interventions. This study employs several machine learning techniques and causal analysis to predict and elucidate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Md. Biplob Hosen , Sabbir Ahmed , Bushra Akter , Mehrin Anannya

Given only data generated by a standard confounding graph with unobserved confounder, the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is not identifiable. To estimate the ATE, a practitioner must then either (a) collect deconfounded data;(b) run a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-09 Kyra Gan , Andrew A. Li , Zachary C. Lipton , Sridhar Tayur

In this paper, we investigate the identifiability of average controlled direct effects and average natural direct effects in causal systems represented by summary causal graphs, which are abstractions of full causal graphs, often used in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Simon Ferreira , Charles K. Assaad

The most widely discussed methods for estimating the Average Causal Effect/Average Treatment Effect are those for intervention in discrete binary variables whose value represents intervention/non-intervention groups. On the other hand,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-21 Yoshiaki Kitazawa

Multivariate time series anomaly detection has numerous real-world applications and is being extensively studied. Modeling pairwise correlations between variables is crucial. Existing methods employ learnable graph structures and graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-24 Zehao Liu , Mengzhou Gao , Pengfei Jiao

Causality is important for designing interpretable and robust methods in artificial intelligence research. We propose a local approach to identify whether a variable is a cause of a given target under the framework of causal graphical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Zhuangyan Fang , Yue Liu , Zhi Geng , Shengyu Zhu , Yangbo He

Inferring the potential consequences of an unobserved event is a fundamental scientific question. To this end, Pearl's celebrated do-calculus provides a set of inference rules to derive an interventional probability from an observational…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2021-08-10 Benjamin Heymann , Michel de Lara , Jean-Philippe Chancelier

Discovering the causal relationship via recovering the directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure from the observed data is a well-known challenging combinatorial problem. When there are latent variables, the problem becomes even more…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-02 Yunfeng Cai , Xu Li , Minging Sun , Ping Li

Measurement error in the observed values of the variables can greatly change the output of various causal discovery methods. This problem has received much attention in multiple fields, but it is not clear to what extent the causal model…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-14 Kun Zhang , Mingming Gong , Joseph Ramsey , Kayhan Batmanghelich , Peter Spirtes , Clark Glymour

In this work, we propose an approach for assessing sensitivity to unobserved confounding in studies with multiple outcomes. We demonstrate how prior knowledge unique to the multi-outcome setting can be leveraged to strengthen causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-26 Jiajing Zheng , Jiaxi Wu , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Causal inference aids researchers in discovering cause-and-effect relationships, leading to scientific insights. Accurate causal estimation requires identifying confounding variables to avoid false discoveries. Pearl's causal model uses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Anna Zeng , Michael Cafarella , Batya Kenig , Markos Markakis , Brit Youngmann , Babak Salimi

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Under the standard IV model, however, the average treatment effect (ATE) is only partially identifiable. To address this,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Causal models communicate our assumptions about causes and effects in real-world phe- nomena. Often the interest lies in the identification of the effect of an action which means deriving an expression from the observed probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Santtu Tikka , Juha Karvanen

Marginal structural models (MSMs) are commonly used to estimate causal intervention effects in longitudinal non-randomised studies. A common issue when analysing data from observational studies is the presence of incomplete confounder data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-02 Clemence Leyrat , James R Carpenter , Sebastien Bailly , Elizabeth J Willamson

A common theme in causal inference is learning causal relationships between observed variables, also known as causal discovery. This is usually a daunting task, given the large number of candidate causal graphs and the combinatorial nature…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-11 Romain Lopez , Jan-Christian Hütter , Jonathan K. Pritchard , Aviv Regev

Causal discovery combines data with knowledge provided by experts to learn the DAG representing the causal relationships between a given set of variables. When data are scarce, bagging is used to measure our confidence in an average DAG…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alessio Zanga , Marco Scutari , Fabio Stella

Missing data is a pervasive problem in epidemiology, with multiple imputation (MI) a commonly used analysis method. MI is valid when data are missing at random (MAR). However, definitions of MAR with multiple incomplete variables are not…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-14 Paul Madley-Dowd , Rachael A. Hughes , Maya B. Mathur , Jon Heron , Kate Tilling

Causal relationships among variables are commonly represented via directed acyclic graphs. There are many methods in the literature to quantify the strength of arrows in a causal acyclic graph. These methods, however, have undesirable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-08 Yue Wang , Linbo Wang

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

Discovering the causal effect of a decision is critical to nearly all forms of decision-making. In particular, it is a key quantity in drug development, in crafting government policy, and when implementing a real-world machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-04 Limor Gultchin , Matt J. Kusner , Varun Kanade , Ricardo Silva