Related papers: Self-exciting negative binomial distribution proce…
We consider properties of the measurement intensity $\rho$ of a random variable for which the probability density function represented by the corresponding Wigner function attains negative values on a part of the domain. We consider a…
In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of nearly unstable Hawkes processes whose regression kernel has $L^1$ norm strictly greater than one and close to one as time goes to infinity. We find that,the scaling size determines…
In this paper we determine bounds and exact asymptotics of the ruin probability for risk process with arrivals given by a linear marked Hawkes process. We consider the light-tailed and heavy-tailed case of the claim sizes. Main technique is…
We analyse the balls in bins process with feedback with primary focus on the power law feedback function $f(\omega)=\eta \omega^{\gamma}\,$, $\eta>0\,$ $\gamma \geq0\,$. Using the recursive solution to the master equation we find for power…
The subcritical Markov branching process X(t) starting with one particle as the initial condition has the ultimate extinction probability q = 1. The branching mechanism in consideration is defined by the mixture of logarithmic distributions…
Let $F$ be a distribution function on $\mathbb{R}$ with $F(0) = 0 $ and density $f$. Let $\tilde{F}$ be the distribution function of $X_1 - X_2$, $X_i\sim F,\, i=1,2,\text{ iid}$. We show that for a critical Hawkes process with displacement…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process with wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. The Hawkes process is defined for continuous-time setting. However, data is also recorded in a…
In this paper, we present a nonparametric estimation procedure for the multivariate Hawkes point process. The timeline is cut into bins and -- for each component process -- the number of points in each bin is counted. The distribution of…
Hawkes processes have seen a number of applications in finance, due to their ability to capture event clustering behaviour typically observed in financial systems. Given a calibrated Hawkes process, of concern is the statistical fit to…
We consider the pricing of derivatives written on accumulated marks, such as weather derivatives or aggregate loss claims, using a self-exciting marked point process. The jump intensity mean-reverts between events and increases at jump…
In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…
We obtain local weak limits in probability for Collapsed Branching Processes (CBP), which are directed random networks obtained by collapsing random-sized families of individuals in a general continuous-time branching process. The local…
We aim to explicitly model the delayed Granger causal effects based on multivariate Hawkes processes. The idea is inspired by the fact that a causal event usually takes some time to exert an effect. Studying this time lag itself is of…
We develop a Bayesian nonparametric approach to a general family of latent class problems in which individuals can belong simultaneously to multiple classes and where each class can be exhibited multiple times by an individual. We introduce…
A one-parameter family of point processes describing the distribution of the critical points of the characteristic polynomial of large random Hermitian matrices on the scale of mean spacing is investigated. Conditionally on the Riemann…
A self-exciting spatio-temporal point process is fitted to incident data from the UK National Traffic Information Service to model the rates of primary and secondary accidents on the M25 motorway in a 12-month period during 2017-18. This…
We prove finite time extinction for stochastic sign fast diffusion equations driven by linear multiplicative space-time noise, corresponding to the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld model for self-organized criticality. This solves a problem posed and…
We present the first exact analysis of some of the temporal properties of multivariate self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson processes, which constitute powerful representations of a large variety of systems with bursty events, for which…
We investigate the asymptotic behavior as time goes to infinity of Hawkes processes whose regression kernel has $L^1$ norm close to one and power law tail of the form $x^{-(1+\alpha)}$, with $\alpha\in(0,1)$. We in particular prove that…
A univariate Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process is given by the sum of a baseline intensity and another term that depends on the entire past history…