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This study proposes a versatile model for the dynamics of the best bid and ask prices using an extended Hawkes process. The model incorporates the zero intensities of the spread-narrowing processes at the minimum bid-ask spread,…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-26 Kyungsub Lee , Byoung Ki Seo

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We give a construction of the Hawkes process as a piecewise competing risks model. We argue that the most natural interpretation of the self-excitation kernel is the hazard function of a defective random variable. This establishes a link…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Maximilian Aigner , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alba Bernabeu , Jorge Mateu

In this paper we introduce a new model named CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes process as the Hawkes model with exponential kernel implies a strictly decreasing behaviour of the autocorrelation function and empirically evidences reject the monotonicity…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-08-23 Lorenzo Mercuri , Andrea Perchiazzo , Edit Rroji

The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Lingxiao Zhou , Georgia Papadogeorgou

We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-25 Sylvain Delattre , Nicolas Fournier , Marc Hoffmann

In this paper, we propose a stochastic process, which is a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process with Hawkes jumps. It can be seen as a generalization of the classical Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and the classical Hawkes process with exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-16 Lingjiong Zhu

We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-17 Maxime Morariu-Patrichi , Mikko S. Pakkanen

This paper presents an algorithm for the simulation of Hawkes-type processes where the intensity is expressed in terms of a continuous-time autoregressive moving average model. We identify upper bounds for both the univariate and the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-10 Lorenzo Mercuri , Andrea Perchiazzo , Edit Rroji

We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Teppei Ogihara , Nakahiro Yoshida

Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-01 Trinnhallen Brisley , Gordon Ross , Daniel Paulin , Jake Easto

An analytical study of the return time distribution of extreme events for stochastic processes with power-law correlation has been carried on. The calculation is based on an epsilon-expansion in the correlation exponent:…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Piero Olla

Due to its clustering and self-exciting properties, the Hawkes process has been used extensively in numerous fields ranging from sismology to finance. Since data is often aquired on regular time intervals, we propose a piece-wise constant…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-28 Lorick Huang , Mahmoud Khabou

We study the statistical properties of recurrence times in the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process, the simplest extension of the Poisson process that takes into account how the past events influence the occurrence of future…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-12 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-04 Behzad Mehrdad , Lingjiong Zhu

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Maya Sadeler-Perrin

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-21 Noa Malem-Shinitski , Cesar Ojeda , Manfred Opper

We study probabilities of various rare events for the limiting point process that appears at the random matrix hard edge. We also show a transition from hard edge to bulk behavior. Asymptotic events studied include a central limit theorem…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-22 Diane Holcomb