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We characterize a Hawkes point process with kernel proportional to the probability density function of Mittag-Leffler random variables. This kernel decays as a power law with exponent $\beta +1 \in (1,2]$. Several analytical results can be…

In a discrete-time setting, we consider an arrival process $\left\{\xi_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots \right\}$, which models the occurrence of events, and a corresponding point process $\left\{H_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Utpal Jyoti Deba Sarma , Dharmaraja Selvamuthu

Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-12 Achraf Bahamou , Maud Doumergue , Philippe Donnat

We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-12-17 Stephen J. Hardiman , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

The purpose of this paper is to investigate properties of self-exciting jump processes. We derive the Laplace transform of SDE driven self-exciting processes with independent, identically distributed jump sizes. By using this Laplace…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-20 Kristina Rognlien Dahl , Heidar Eyjolfsson

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-01 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

This paper investigates Hawkes processes on the positive real line exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. Each point of this point process impacts its future intensity by the addition of a signed reproduction function. The case of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Manon Costa , Carl Graham , Laurence Marsalle , Viet Chi Tran

Numerous studies grounded on Hawkes processes have been carried out in many fields including finance, biology and social network. Hawkes processes form a class of selfexciting simple point processes. In this article, we consider a general…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Bartholomé Vieille , Rachid Senoussi , Samuel Soubeyrand

In this paper, a framework on a discrete observation of (marked) point processes under the high-frequency observation is developed. Based on this framework, we first clarify the relation between random coefficient integer-valued…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-11 Daisuke Kurisu

In this paper, we present a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of a univariate Hawkes process with self-excitation or inhibition. Our work generalizes techniques and results that were restricted to the self-exciting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-23 Anna Bonnet , Miguel Martinez Herrera , Maxime Sangnier

An extension of the Hawkes process, the Marked Hawkes process distinguishes itself by featuring variable jump size across each event, in contrast to the constant jump size observed in a Hawkes process without marks. While extensive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-08 Sobin Joseph , Shashi Jain

Hawkes processes have recently gained increasing attention from the machine learning community for their versatility in modeling event sequence data. While they have a rich history going back decades, some of their properties, such as…

Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance and many other fields. In this paper, we obtain a functional…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-16 Lingjiong Zhu

The marked Hawkes risk process is a compound point process for which the occurrence and amplitude of past events impact the future. Thanks to its autoregressive properties, it found applications in various fields such as neuosciences,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-11 Laure Coutin , Mahmoud Khabou

The Hawkes process is a versatile stochastic model for point patterns that exhibit self-excitation, that is, the property that an event occurrence increases the rate of occurrence for some period of time in the future. We present a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Hyotae Kim , Athanasios Kottas

We introduce a Markovian single point process model, with random intensity regulated through a buffer mechanism and a self-exciting effect controlling the arrival stream to the buffer. The model applies the principle of the Hawkes process…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-12 Ingemar Kaj , Mine Caglar

The present paper provides exact mathematical expressions for the high-order moments of spiking activity in a recurrently-connected network of linear Hawkes processes. It extends previous studies that have explored the case of a (linear)…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2019-12-17 Matthieu Gilson , Jean-Pascal Pfister

In this paper, we study a class of self-exciting point processes. The intensity of the point process has a nonlinear dependence on the past history and time. When a new jump occurs, the intensity increases and we expect more jumps to come.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-12 Tzu-Wei Yang , Lingjiong Zhu

In this paper, we introduce a new class of processes which are diffusions with jumps driven by a multivariate nonlinear Hawkes process. Our goal is to study their long-time behavior. In the case of exponential memory kernels for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-09 Charlotte Dion , Sarah Lemler , Eva Löcherbach

We investigate the nonparametric estimation problem of the density $\pi$, representing the stationary distribution of a two-dimensional system $\left(Z_t\right)_{t \in[0, T]}=\left(X_t, \lambda_t\right)_{t \in[0, T]}$. In this system, $X$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-01 Chiara Amorino , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Arnaud Gloter , Sarah Lemler