Related papers: Optimal social security timing
Motivated by applications such as college admission and insurance rate determination, we propose an evaluation problem where the inputs are controlled by strategic individuals who can modify their features at a cost. A learner can only…
We derive key features of the Age-of-Information distribution in a system whose activities are strictly limited to periodic instances on a global time grid. In particular, one agent periodically generates updates while the other agent…
Risk prediction is central to both clinical medicine and public health. While many machine learning models have been developed to predict mortality, they are rarely applied in the clinical literature, where classification tasks typically…
Over sixty percent of employees at a large South African company contribute the minimum rate of 7.5 percent to a retirement fund, far below the rate of 15 percent recommended by financial advisers. I use a field experiment to investigate…
The paper addresses the problem of computing maximal conditional expected accumulated rewards until reaching a target state (briefly called maximal conditional expectations) in finite-state Markov decision processes where the condition is…
We implement the dynamical Ising model on the large scale architecture of white matter connections of healthy subjects in the age range 4-85 years, and analyze the dynamics in terms of the synergy, a quantity measuring the extent to which…
This paper considers the constrained portfolio optimization in a generalized life-cycle model. The individual with a stochastic income manages a portfolio consisting of stocks, a bond, and life insurance to maximize his or her consumption…
We study the dynamics of an age-structured population in which the life expectancy of an offspring may be mutated with respect to that of its parent. When advantageous mutation is favored, the average fitness of the population grows…
Due to the presence of reporting and settlement delay, claim data sets collected by non-life insurance companies are typically incomplete, facing right censored claim count and claim severity observations. Current practice in non-life…
A resource-constrained system monitors a source of information by requesting a finite number of updates subject to random transmission delays. An a priori fixed update request policy is shown to minimize a polynomial penalty function of the…
We present a model for biological aging that considers the number of individuals whose (inherited) genetic charge determines the maximum age for death: each individual may die before that age due to some external factor, but never after…
Schelling's model is an influential model that reveals how individual perceptions and incentives can lead to residential segregation. Inspired by a recent stream of work, we study welfare guarantees and complexity in this model with respect…
This paper bridges social security design and general equilibrium theory to conceive optimally balanced pay-as-you-go systems. The design is based on the backward calculation algorithm from Dognini (2025), which is used to find optimal…
A favorable population schedule for the entire potential human family is sought, under the overlapping generations framework, by treating population (or fertility) as a planning variable in a dynamical social welfare maximization context.…
We study an optimal claim reporting problem in a bonus-malus setting. We assume, that the insurance contract consists of two regimes, where reporting a claim leads to a transition to a higher-premium regime, whereas remaining claim-free for…
The increasing difficulties in financing the welfare state and in particular public retirement pensions have been one of the outcomes both of the decrease of fertility and birth rates combined with the increase of life expectancy. The…
Prediction markets are powerful tools to elicit and aggregate beliefs from strategic agents. However, in current prediction markets, agents may exhaust the social welfare by competing to be the first to update the market. We initiate the…
In UK data, I document the prevalence of misbeliefs regarding the State Pension eligibility age (SPA) and their predictivity for retirement. Exploiting policy variation, I estimate a lifecycle model of retirement in which, motivated by…
Machine-learning-based age estimation has received lots of attention. Traditional age estimation mechanism focuses estimation age error, but ignores that there is a deviation between the estimated age and real age due to disease.…
We find the optimal indemnity to maximize the expected utility of terminal wealth of a buyer of insurance whose preferences are modeled by an exponential utility. The insurance premium is computed by a convex functional. We obtain a…