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Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that adversely affects management decisions, and mathematical modelling is an aid to its detailed understanding. Bias in opinion update about the value of a parameter is modelled here assuming that…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2022-02-08 Rose D Baker

We introduce a way to compare actions in decision problems. One action is safer than another if the set of beliefs at which the decision-maker prefers the safer action expands as the decision-maker becomes more risk averse. We provide a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-19 Marilyn Pease , Mark Whitmeyer

Trustworthy language models should abstain from answering questions when they do not know the answer. However, the answer to a question can be unknown for a variety of reasons. Prior research has focused on the case in which the question is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Jeremy R. Cole , Michael J. Q. Zhang , Daniel Gillick , Julian Martin Eisenschlos , Bhuwan Dhingra , Jacob Eisenstein

We investigate how individuals form expectations about population behavior using statistical inference based on observations of their social relations. Misperceptions about others' connectedness and behavior arise from sampling bias…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-05-27 Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen , Martin Benedikt Busch

In open-domain question answering, due to the ambiguity of questions, multiple plausible answers may exist. To provide feasible answers to an ambiguous question, one approach is to directly predict all valid answers, but this can struggle…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Weiwei Sun , Hengyi Cai , Hongshen Chen , Pengjie Ren , Zhumin Chen , Maarten de Rijke , Zhaochun Ren

An observer wants to understand a decision-maker's welfare from her choice. She believes that decisions are made under limited attention. We argue that the standard model of limited attention cannot help the observer greatly. To address…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-10-16 Mikhail Freer , Hassan Nosratabadi

From scientific experiments to online A/B testing, the previously observed data often affects how future experiments are performed, which in turn affects which data will be collected. Such adaptivity introduces complex correlations between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-03 Xinkun Nie , Xiaoying Tian , Jonathan Taylor , James Zou

I study altruistic choices through the lens of a cognitively noisy decision-maker. I introduce a theoretical framework that demonstrates how increased cognitive noise can directionally affect altruistic decisions and put its implications to…

General Economics · Economics 2025-01-03 Niklas M. Witzig

This paper investigates a purely qualitative version of Savage's theory for decision making under uncertainty. Until now, most representation theorems for preference over acts rely on a numerical representation of utility and uncertainty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Helene Fargier , Patrice Perny

This paper investigates the prospects of using directive explanations to assist people in achieving recourse of machine learning decisions. Directive explanations list which specific actions an individual needs to take to achieve their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Ronal Singh , Paul Dourish , Piers Howe , Tim Miller , Liz Sonenberg , Eduardo Velloso , Frank Vetere

In many biological networks the responses of individual elements are ambiguous. We consider a scenario in which many sensors respond to a shared signal, each with limited information capacity, and ask that the outputs together convey as…

Biological Physics · Physics 2025-12-30 Marianne Bauer , William Bialek

A mathematical model of Subject behaviour choice is proposed. The background of the model is the concept of two preference relations determining Subject behaviour. These are an "internal" or subjective preference relation and an "external"…

Logic · Mathematics 2025-10-20 Valeriy K. Bulitko

When making decisions under uncertainty, individuals often deviate from rational behavior, which can be evaluated across three dimensions: risk preference, probability weighting, and loss aversion. Given the widespread use of large language…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Jingru Jia , Zehua Yuan , Junhao Pan , Paul E. McNamara , Deming Chen

Algorithmic recommendation based on noisy preference measurement is prevalent in recommendation systems. This paper discusses the consequences of such recommendation on market concentration and inequality. Binary types denoting a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-21 Andreas Haupt

Large-scale social networks are thought to contribute to polarization by amplifying people's biases. However, the complexity of these technologies makes it difficult to identify the mechanisms responsible and to evaluate mitigation…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-10-07 Mathew D. Hardy , Bill D. Thompson , P. M. Krafft , Thomas L. Griffiths

We conduct a laboratory experiment using framing to assess the willingness to ``sell a lemon'', i.e., to undertake an action that benefits self but hurts the other (the ``buyer''). We seek to disentangle the role of other-regarding…

General Economics · Economics 2024-05-24 Ingela Alger , José Ignacio Rivero-Wildemauwe

Decisions taken in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market therefore provides a rich environment to study how people take…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-28 Mario Gutiérrez-Roig , Carlota Segura , Jordi Duch , Josep Perelló

An agent choosing between various actions tends to take the one with the lowest cost. But this choice is arguably too rigid (not adaptive) to be useful in complex situations, e.g., where exploration-exploitation trade-off is relevant in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-12-04 Armen E. Allahverdyan , Aram Galstyan , Ali E. Abbas , Zbigniew R. Struzik

We consider the problem of designing a prospective randomized trial in which the outcome data will be self-reported, and will involve sensitive topics. Our interest is in misreporting behavior, and how respondents' tendency to under- or…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-27 Evan T. R. Rosenman , Rina Friedberg , Mike Baiocchi

We study the experimentation dynamics of a decision maker (DM) in a two-armed bandit setup (Bolton and Harris (1999)), where the agent holds ambiguous beliefs regarding the distribution of the return process of one arm and is certain about…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-04-02 Farzad Pourbabaee