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A bivariate random vector can exhibit either asymptotic independence or dependence between the largest values of its components. When used as a statistical model for risk assessment in fields such as finance, insurance or meteorology, it is…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-29 Sebastian Engelke , Thomas Opitz , Jennifer Wadsworth

We provide a simple framework for the study of parametric (multiplicative) noise, making use of scale parameters. We show that for a large class of stochastic differential equations increasing the multiplicative noise intensity surprisingly…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-11-22 Ewan T. Phillips , Benjamin Lindner , Holger Kantz

We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-14 Krzysztof Zajkowski

We study the asymptotic tail probability of the first-passage time over a moving boundary for a random walk conditioned to return to zero, where the increments of the random walk have finite variance. Typically, the asymptotic tail behavior…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-09 Fiona Sloothaak , Vitali Wachtel , Bert Zwart

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Ernst Roos , Ruud Brekelmans , Wouter van Eekelen , Dick den Hertog , Johan van Leeuwaarden

For regularized estimation, the upper tail behavior of the random Lipschitz coefficient associated with empirical loss functions is known to play an important role in the error bound of Lasso for high dimensional generalized linear models.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-09-07 Zhiyi Chi

High-dimensional data sets are commonly collected in many contemporary applications arising in various fields of scientific research. We present two views of finite samples in high dimensions: a probabilistic one and a nonprobabilistic one.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-13 Jinchi Lv

In the world of modern financial theory, portfolio construction has traditionally operated under at least one of two central assumptions: the constraints are derived from a utility function and/or the multivariate probability distribution…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-19 Donald Geman , Hélyette Geman , Nassim Nicholas Taleb

We consider monotonic, multiple regression for a set of contiguous regions (lattice data). The regression functions permissibly vary between regions and exhibit geographical structure. We develop new Bayesian non-parametric methodology…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-16 Christian Rohrbeck , Deborah Costain , Arnoldo Frigessi

Using terminologies of information geometry, we derive upper and lower bounds of the tail probability of the sample mean. Employing these bounds, we obtain upper and lower bounds of the minimum error probability of the 2nd kind of error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-10 Shun Watanabe , Masahito Hayashi

We study temporal entanglement in dual-unitary Clifford circuits with probabilistic measurements preserving spatial unitarity. We exactly characterize the temporal entanglement barrier in the measurement-free regime, exhibiting ballistic…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-11-27 Jiangtian Yao , Pieter W. Claeys

Estimating the probability of extreme events involving multiple risk factors is a critical challenge in fields such as finance and climate science. This paper proposes a semi-parametric approach to estimate the probability that a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-31 Anna Kiriliouk , Chen Zhou

The mean-field Langevin dynamics (MFLD) minimizes an entropy-regularized nonlinear convex functional on the Wasserstein space over $\mathbb{R}^d$, and has gained attention recently as a model for the gradient descent dynamics of interacting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Anming Gu , Juno Kim

Statistical modeling of high dimensional extremes remains challenging and has generally been limited to moderate dimensions. Understanding structural relationships among variables at their extreme levels is crucial both for constructing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Mihyun Kim , Jeongjin Lee

This paper considers the deconvolution problem in the case where the target signal is multidimensional and no information is known about the noise distribution. More precisely, no assumption is made on the noise distribution and no samples…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-18 Elisabeth Gassiat , Sylvain Le Corff , Luc Lehéricy

We investigate the dynamics of a single, overdamped colloidal particle, which is driven by a constant force through a one-dimensional periodic potential. We focus on systems with large barrier heights where the lowest-order cumulants of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-05-30 Clive Emary , Robert Gernert , Sabine H. L. Klapp

Many management decisions involve accumulated random realizations for which only the first and second moments of their distribution are available. The sharp Chebyshev-type bound for the tail probability and Scarf bound for the expected loss…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-15 Zhaolin Li , Artem Prokhorov

Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-06 Benjamin Köhler , Anton J. Heckens , Thomas Guhr

Gaussian random vectors exhibit the loss of dimension phenomena, which relate to their joint survival tail behaviour. Besides, the fact that the components of such vectors are light-tailed complicates the approximations of various…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-09 E. Hashorva

It is shown that the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of a univariate log-concave probability density satisfies desirable consistency properties in the tail regions. Specifically, let $P$ and $f$ denote the true underlying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Didier B. Ryter , Lutz Duembgen