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Geometric tempering is a popular approach to sampling from challenging multi-modal probability distributions by instead sampling from a sequence of distributions which interpolate, using the geometric mean, between an easier proposal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-09 Omar Chehab , Anna Korba , Austin Stromme , Adrien Vacher

A theoretical expression is derived for the mean squared error of a nonparametric estimator of the tail dependence coefficient, depending on a threshold that defines which rank delimits the tails of a distribution. We propose a new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-25 Matthieu Garcin , Maxime L. D. Nicolas

The phase diagrams and transitions of nonequilibrium systems with multiplicative noise are studied theoretically. We show the existence of both strong and weak-coupling critical behavior, of two distinct active phases, and of a nonzero…

adap-org · Physics 2016-08-16 G. Grinstein , M. A. Muñoz , Yuhai Tu

We study a large class of stochastic $p$-Laplace Allen-Cahn equations with singular potential. Under suitable assumptions on the (multiplicative-type) noise we first prove existence, uniqueness, and regularity of variational solutions.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-14 Federico Bertacco , Carlo Orrieri , Luca Scarpa

We study failure rate monotonicity and generalized convex transform stochastic ordering properties of random variables, with a concern on applications. We are especially interested in the effect of a tail weight iteration procedure to…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Idir Arab , Milto Hadjikyriakou , Paulo Eduardo Oliveira

We use the optimal fluctuation method to evaluate the short-time probability distribution $\mathcal{P}\left(H,L,t\right)$ of height at a single point, $H=h\left(x=0,t\right)$, of the evolving Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) interface…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-02-15 Naftali R. Smith , Baruch Meerson , Pavel Sasorov

A catalytic branching random walk on a multidimensional lattice, with arbitrary finite number of catalysts, is studied in supercritical regime. The dynamics of spatial spread of the particles population is examined, upon normalization. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-14 Ekaterina Vl. Bulinskaya

The dynamics of individual colloidal particles in random potential energy landscapes were investigated experimentally and by Monte Carlo simulations. The value of the potential at each point in the two-dimensional energy landscape follows a…

We consider convex stochastic optimization problems under different assumptions on the properties of available stochastic subgradient. It is known that, if the value of the objective function is available, one can obtain, in parallel,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-01-19 Pavel Dvurechensky , Alexander Gasnikov , Anastasia Lagunovskaya

In this paper, I present a completely new type of upper and lower bounds on the right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables with unbounded support and with semi-bounded support from the left. The presented upper and lower…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-28 Nikola Zlatanov

Early warning indicators often suffer from the shortness and coarse-graining of real-world time series. Furthermore, the typically strong and correlated noise contributions in real applications are severe drawbacks for statistical measures.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-03-03 Martin Heßler , Oliver Kamps

We demonstrate both analytically and numerically that the existing methods for measuring tail dependence in copulas may sometimes underestimate the extent of extreme co-movements of dependent risks and, therefore, may not always comply with…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-19 Edward Furman , Jianxi Su , Ričardas Zitikis

We consider an infinite interface in $d>2$ dimensions, governed by the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation with a weak Gaussian noise which is delta-correlated in time and has short-range spatial correlations. We study the probability…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-05-02 Baruch Meerson , Pavel V. Sasorov , Arkady Vilenkin

We show that a simple mechanistic model of spatial dispersal for settling organisms, subject to parameter variability, can generate heavy-tailed radial probability density functions. The movement of organisms in the model consists of a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-23 Luis F. Gordillo , Priscilla E. Greenwood

We present results of the numerical simulations and the scaling characteristics of one-dimensional random fluctuations with heavy tailed probability distribution functions. Assuming that the distribution function of the random fluctuations…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-08-16 Mohsen Ghasemi Nezhadhaghighi

The authors announce a general tail estimate, called a decoupling inequality, for a symmetrized sum of non-linear $k$-correlations of $n>k$ independent random variables.

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-06 Victor H. de la Peña , Stephen J. Montgomery-Smith

Understanding the shape of a distribution of data is of interest to people in a great variety of fields, as it may affect the types of algorithms used for that data. We study one such problem in the framework of distribution property…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Maryam Aliakbarpour , Amartya Shankha Biswas , Kavya Ravichandran , Ronitt Rubinfeld

Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-06 Reetam Majumder , Brian J. Reich , Benjamin A. Shaby

The asymptotic tail behaviour of sums of independent subexponential random variables is well understood, one of the main characteristics being the principle of the single big jump. We study the case of dependent subexponential random…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Sergey Foss , Andrew Richards

Assessing the probability of occurrence of extreme events is a crucial issue in various fields like finance, insurance, telecommunication or environmental sciences. In a multivariate framework, the tail dependence is characterized by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-26 Nicolas Goix , Anne Sabourin , Stéphan Clémençon