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The ISMR profoundly impacts over a billion people across the region. ISMR extremes have been linked to the ENSO and modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). ISMR of 2022 displayed intriguing spatial patterns: above-normal precipitation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-19 Supriya Ovhal , Mujumdar M , Swapna P , Sreenivas P , Sandeep N , Ravichandran M

In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-05-29 Alka Yadav , Sourish Das , Anirban Chakraborti

Though the Boltzmann-Gibbs framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics has been successful in many arenas, it is clearly inadequate for describing many interesting natural phenomena driven far from equilibrium. The simplest step towards…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-10-15 Jeffrey B. Weiss , Baylor Fox-Kemper , Dibyendu Mandal , Arin D. Nelson , R. K. P. Zia

This research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-20 Hendri Irwandi , Mohammad Syamsu Rosid , Terry Mart

Machine-learnt weather prediction (MLWP) models are now well established as being competitive with conventional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in the medium range. However, there is still much uncertainty as to how this…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-26 Bobby Antonio , Kristian Strommen , Hannah M. Christensen

Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-08-22 Stefania Scarsoglio , Francesco Laio , Luca Ridolfi

Considering the interdependencies between water and electricity use is critical for ensuring conservation measures are successful in lowering the net water and electricity use in a city. This water-electricity demand nexus will become even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-26 Renee Obringer , Rohini Kumar , Roshanak Nateghi

Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-09 Felix S. Fauer , Henning W. Rust

Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure, the order parameter, to study and quantify climate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-02-24 Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan , Yosef Ashkenazy , Shlomo Havlin

While most spatial data can be modeled with the assumption that distant points are uncorrelated, some problems require dependence at both far and short distances. We introduce a model to directly incorporate dependence in phenomena that…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-04 Joshua Hewitt , Jennifer A. Hoeting , James Done , Erin Towler

A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-27 Theodoros Economou , David B. Stephenson , Christopher A. T. Ferro

Reliable long-lead forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains a long-standing challenge in climate science. The previously developed Multimodal ENSO Forecast (MEF) model uses 80 ensemble predictions by two independent…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-08-27 Saghar Ganji , Ahmad Reza Labibzadeh , Alireza Hassani , Mohammad Naisipour

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, can generate severe hazardous radiation when accelerated by solar flares or shock waves formed aside from coronal mass ejections (CMEs).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Anli Ji , Pranjal Patil , Chetraj Pandey , Manolis K. Georgoulis , Berkay Aydin

The Mediterranean is strongly affected by Extreme Precipitation Events (EPEs), sometimes leading to negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-06-16 Nikolaos Mastrantonas , Pedro Herrera-Lormendez , Linus Magnusson , Florian Pappenberger , Jörg Matschullat

Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-08-10 Ehud Strobach , Golan Bel

Tropical cyclones (TCs), driven by heat exchange between the air and sea, pose a substantial risk to many communities around the world. Accurate characterization of the subsurface ocean thermal response to TC passage is crucial for accurate…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-18 Addison J. Hu , Mikael Kuusela , Ann B. Lee , Donata Giglio , Kimberly M. Wood

Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-07-20 Stjepan Marčelja

Climate change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has beenaddressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model…

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather that require continuous monitoring and forecasting using robust methods. We demonstrate a proof of concept of using a data-driven supervised…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-08-13 Sumanth A. Rotti , Berkay Aydin , Petrus C. Martens

Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air-sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-07-08 Navid C. Constantinou , Andrew McC. Hogg