Related papers: Forecasting the El Ni\~no type well before the spr…
Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…
The solar activity provides an important impact not only on the intensity of cosmic rays but also on the earth environment. In this paper, a coupled oscillator model is proposed to explain the solar activity. By this model the 89 year…
This study examines the evolution of extreme Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and their impacts on South America during the austral summer. Furthermore, the study explores how the different ENSO phases modulate extreme MJO events, and…
It is largely agreed that subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability arises from the atmospheric initial state during early lead times and from the land and ocean during intermediate and late lead times. We test this hypothesis for the…
We construct and analyze a climate network which represents the interdependent structure of the climate in different geographical zones and find that the network responds in a unique way to El-Ni\~{n}o events. Analyzing the dynamics of the…
Conceptual delay models have played a key role in the understanding of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Based on such delay models, we propose a novel scenario for the fabric of ENSO variability resulting from the subtle…
Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…
We examine how coupling functions in the theory of dynamical systems provide a quantitative window into climate dynamics. Previously we have shown that a one-dimensional periodic non-autonomous stochastic dynamical system can simulate the…
Rainy years and dry years in SE Australia are known to be correlated with sea surface temperatures in the specific areas of the Indian Ocean. While over the past 100 years the correlation had been both positive and negative, it…
The extratropical meridional energy transport in the atmosphere is fundamentally intermittent in nature, having extremes large enough to affect the net seasonal transport. Here, we investigate how these extreme transports are associated…
The recharge oscillator (RO) model has been successfully used to understand different aspects of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fitting the RO to observations and climate model simulations consistently suggests that ENSO is a…
Observations of planets throughout our Solar System have revealed that the Earth is not alone in possessing natural, inter-annual atmospheric cycles. The equatorial middle atmospheres of the Earth, Jupiter and Saturn all exhibit a…
The shape and tails of partial distribution functions (PDF) for a climatological signal, i.e. the El Nino SOI and the turbulent nature of the ocean-atmosphere variability are linked through a model encompassing Tsallis nonextensive…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…
Extratropical storms shape midlatitude weather and vary due to the slowly evolving climate and the rapid changes in synoptic conditions. While the influence of each factor has been studied extensively, their relative importance remains…
Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause disasters such as flooding, mudslides, and landslides. Predicting such precipitation in advance is crucial, giving people time to prepare and defend against these precipitation-induced…
Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent climate variability remain a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized…
The influence of climate variability and global warming on the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TC) is a controversial issue. Existing historical databases on the subject are not fully reliable, but a more fundamental hindrance is the lack…