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Traditional methods for unsupervised learning of finite mixture models require to evaluate the likelihood of all components of the mixture. This becomes computationally prohibitive when the number of components is large, as it is, for…
The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is further developed to incorporate covariate influences across all aspects of the state…
In this paper, different strands of literature are combined in order to obtain algorithms for semi-parametric estimation of discrete choice models that include the modelling of unobserved heterogeneity by using mixing distributions for the…
In the paper, we study a new rate of convergence estimate for homogeneous discrete-time nonlinear Markov chains based on the Markov-Dobrushin condition. This result generalizes the convergence estimates for any positive number of transition…
State-space models (SSMs) are a powerful statistical tool for modelling time-varying systems via a latent state. In these models, the latent state is never directly observed. Instead, a sequence of observations related to the state is…
We propose a novel class of flexible latent-state time series regression models which we call Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale and shape. In contrast to conventional Markov-switching regression models, the…
Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for estimating parameters of statistical models. However, EM, which is an iterative algorithm based on the maximum likelihood principle, is generally only guaranteed to find…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a generative model that treats sequential data under the assumption that each observation is conditioned on the state of a discrete hidden variable that evolves in time as a Markov chain. In this paper, we…
Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…
We develop a generally applicable full-information inference method for heterogeneous agent models, combining aggregate time series data and repeated cross sections of micro data. To handle unobserved aggregate state variables that affect…
For Agent Based Models, in particular the Voter Model (VM), a general framework of aggregation is developed which exploits the symmetries of the agent network $G$. Depending on the symmetry group $Aut_{\omega} (N)$ of the weighted agent…
The EM-algorithm is a general procedure to get maximum likelihood estimates if part of the observations on the variables of a network are missing. In this paper a stochastic version of the algorithm is adapted to probabilistic neural…
This work concerns estimation of linear autoregressive models with Markov-switching using expectation maximisation (E.M.) algorithm. Our method generalise the method introduced by Elliot for general hidden Markov models and avoid to use…
Balancing treatment allocation for influential covariates is critical in clinical trials. This has become increasingly important as more and more biomarkers are found to be associated with different diseases in translational research…
Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…
Finite mixtures of matrix normal distributions are a powerful tool for classifying three-way data in unsupervised problems. The distribution of each component is assumed to be a matrix variate normal density. The mixture model can be…
The EM algorithm is a generic tool that offers maximum likelihood solutions when datasets are incomplete with data values missing at random or completely at random. At least for its simplest form, the algorithm can be rewritten in terms of…
In this paper, we propose a dynamical systems perspective of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. More precisely, we can analyze the EM algorithm as a nonlinear state-space dynamical system. The EM algorithm is widely adopted for…
In this paper, we introduce a variant of hidden Markov models in which the transition probabilities between the states, as well as the emission distributions, are not constant in time but vary in a periodic manner. This class of models,…
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is one of the most popular methods used to solve the problem of parametric distribution-based clustering in unsupervised learning. In this paper, we propose to analyze a generalized EM (GEM)…