Related papers: Aggregate Markov models in life insurance: estimat…
We propose a modified version of the three-step estimation method for the latent class model with covariates, which may be used to estimate latent Markov models for longitudinal data. The three-step estimation approach we propose is based…
We study a novel large dimensional approximate factor model with regime changes in the loadings driven by a latent first order Markov process. By exploiting the equivalent linear representation of the model, we first recover the latent…
Jump Markov linear models consists of a finite number of linear state space models and a discrete variable encoding the jumps (or switches) between the different linear models. Identifying jump Markov linear models makes for a challenging…
We consider state-aggregation schemes for Markov chains from an information-theoretic perspective. Specifically, we consider aggregating the states of a Markov chain such that the mutual information of the aggregated states separated by T…
Inhomogeneous phase-type (IPH) distributions extend classical phase-type models by allowing transition intensities to vary over time, offering greater flexibility for modeling heavy-tailed or time-dependent absorption phenomena. We focus on…
Markov chains are simple yet powerful mathematical structures to model temporally dependent processes. They generally assume stationary data, i.e., fixed transition probabilities between observations/states. However, live, real-world…
We show how the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm can be applied exactly for the fitting of mixtures of general multivariate skew t (MST) distributions, eliminating the need for computationally expensive Monte Carlo estimation. Finite…
Performance evaluation of nursing homes is usually accomplished by the repeated administration of questionnaires aimed at measuring the health status of the patients during their period of residence in the nursing home. We illustrate how a…
We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distribution belongs to the Beta family. In each latent state, the…
Multitype branching processes (MTBP) model branching structures, where the nodes of the resulting tree are objects of different types. One field of application of such models in biology is in studies of cell proliferation. A sampling scheme…
Computational modeling of assembly is challenging for many systems because their timescales vastly exceed those accessible to simulations. This article describes the MultiMSM, which is a general framework that uses Markov state models…
We estimate a general mixture of Markov jump processes. The key novel feature of the proposed mixture is that the transition intensity matrices of the Markov processes comprising the mixture are entirely unconstrained. The Markov processes…
A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…
We develop an unsupervised mixture model for non-negative, skewed and heavy-tailed data, such as losses in actuarial and risk management applications. The mixture has a lognormal component, which is usually appropriate for the body of the…
This report presents an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation of the maximum-likelihood parameter values of constrained multivariate autoregressive Gaussian state-space (MARSS) models. The MARSS model can be written:…
We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows…
Finite mixture models have been widely used for the modelling and analysis of data from heterogeneous populations. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is typically carried out via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…
Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…