Related papers: Why Does GDP Move Before G? It's all in the Measur…
Accurate forecasting of downside risks to economic growth is critically important for policymakers and financial institutions, particularly in the wake of recent economic crises. This paper extends the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) approach by…
We explore what causes business cycles by analyzing the Japanese industrial production data. The methods are spectral analysis and factor analysis. Using the random matrix theory, we show that two largest eigenvalues are significant. Taking…
The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) came into effect in May 2018 and is designed to safeguard EU citizens' data privacy. The benefits of the regulation to consumers' rights and to regulators' powers are well known. The benefits to…
We evaluate the informational content of news-based sentiment indicators for forecasting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other macroeconomic variables of the five major European economies. Our data set includes over 27 million articles for…
Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) is a common type of Cybercrime. It can strongly damage a company reputation and increase its costs. Attackers improve continuously their strategies. They doubled the amount of unleashed communication…
This paper examines how trade policy uncertainty influences the correlation between U.S. stock indices and short-term government bonds. The objective is to assess whether policy-related shocks, especially those linked to trade tensions,…
The Economist recently reported that infrastructure spending is the largest it is ever been as a share of world GDP. With $22 trillion in projected investments over the next ten years in emerging economies alone, the magazine calls it the…
Previous studies show that natural disasters decelerate economic growth, and more so in countries with lower financial development. We confirm these results with more recent data. We are the first to show that fiscal stability reduces the…
Real-time economic information is essential for policy-making but difficult to obtain. We introduce a granular nowcasting method for macro- and industry-level GDP using a network approach and data on real-time monthly inter-industry…
There are different views in the literature regarding economic growth and development. Growth and development hypotheses have been addressed from many different perspectives. It is aimed to examine the view of production with the Heavy…
I study the role of industries' position in supply chains in shaping the transmission of final demand shocks. First, I use a novel shift-share design leveraging destination-specific final demand shocks and a new measure of destination…
This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of international macroeconomic uncertainty shocks. We use a global vector autoregressive specification with drifting coefficients and factor stochastic volatility in the errors to model six…
In recent decades, trade between nations has constituted an important component of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with official estimates showing that it likely accounted for a quarter of total global production. While evidence of…
We use generative AI to extract managerial expectations about their economic outlook from 120,000+ corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, and employment up to 10 quarters…
Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other…
A noteworthy feature of U.S. politics in recent years is serious partisan conflict, which has led to intensifying polarization and exacerbating high policy uncertainty. The US is a significant player in oil and gold markets. Oil and gold…
Time-triggered and event-triggered control strategies for stabilization of an unstable plant over a rate-limited communication channel subject to unknown, bounded delay are studied and compared. Event triggering carries implicit…
Advances in AI are widely understood to have implications for cybersecurity. Articles have emphasized the effect of AI on the cyber offense-defense balance, and commentators can be found arguing either that cyber will privilege attackers or…
Although companies are exhorted to provide more information to the financial community, it is evident that they choose different paths based upon their strategic emphasis and competitive environments. Our investigation explores the…
We study the distributional implications of uncertainty shocks by developing a model that links macroeconomic aggregates to the US distribution of earnings and consumption. We find that: initially, the fraction of low-earning workers…