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We introduce two synthetic likelihood methods for Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), to conduct either amortized or targeted inference from experimental observations when a high-fidelity simulator is available. Both methods learn a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-19 Pierre Glaser , Michael Arbel , Samo Hromadka , Arnaud Doucet , Arthur Gretton

In a novel approach employing implicit likelihood inference (ILI), also known as likelihood-free inference, we calibrate the parameters of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations against observations, which has previously been unfeasible due…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference for simulators with implicit likelihoods. But when we are primarily interested in the quality of predictive simulations, or when the model cannot exactly reproduce the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-03 Richard Gao , Michael Deistler , Jakob H. Macke

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) data stream will inevitably contain gaps due to maintenance and environmental disturbances, introducing nonstationarities and spectral leakage that compromise standard frequency-domain…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-30 Ruiting Mao , Jeong Eun Lee , Matthew C. Edwards

We present methods to rigorously extract parameter combinations that are constrained by data from posterior distributions. The standard approach uses linear methods that apply to Gaussian distributions. We show the limitations of the linear…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-04-06 Tara Dacunha , Marco Raveri , Minsu Park , Cyrille Doux , Bhuvnesh Jain

We present cosmological constraints from a cosmic shear analysis of the fourth data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000), doubling the survey area with nine-band optical and near-infrared photometry with respect to previous KiDS…

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Scientists and engineers use simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. However, tuning the parameters of a simulator to ensure its outputs match observed data presents a significant challenge. Simulation-based inference (SBI)…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods typically require fully observed data to infer parameters of models with intractable likelihood functions. However, datasets often contain missing values due to incomplete observations, data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yogesh Verma , Ayush Bharti , Vikas Garg

Density-estimation likelihood-free inference (DELFI) has recently been proposed as an efficient method for simulation-based cosmological parameter inference. Compared to the standard likelihood-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2019-07-30 Peter L. Taylor , Thomas D. Kitching , Justin Alsing , Benjamin D. Wandelt , Stephen M. Feeney , Jason D. McEwen

The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-03 Jason Poh , Ashwin Samudre , Aleksandra Ćiprijanović , Joshua Frieman , Gourav Khullar , Brian D. Nord

Most of the fundamental, emergent, and phenomenological parameters of particle and nuclear physics are determined through parametric template fits. Simulations are used to populate histograms which are then matched to data. This approach is…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-03-12 Benjamin Sluijter , Sascha Diefenbacher , Wahid Bhimji , Benjamin Nachman

In recent years, there has been a remarkable development of simulation-based inference (SBI) algorithms, and they have now been applied across a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological analyses. There are a number of key advantages to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-03-18 Noemi Anau Montel , James Alvey , Christoph Weniger

We present the first-ever cosmological constraints from a simulation-based inference (SBI) analysis of galaxy clustering from the new ${\rm S{\scriptsize IM}BIG}$ forward modeling framework. ${\rm S{\scriptsize IM}BIG}$ leverages the…

Some of the issues that make sampling parameter spaces of various beyond the Standard Model (BSM) scenarios computationally expensive are the high dimensionality of the input parameter space, complex likelihoods, and stringent experimental…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-02-16 Atrideb Chatterjee , Arghya Choudhury , Sourav Mitra , Arpita Mondal , Subhadeep Mondal

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a method to perform inference on a variety of complex scientific models with challenging inference (inverse) problems. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) aims to efficiently use experimental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-13 Vincent D. Zaballa , Elliot E. Hui

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) offers a principled and flexible framework for conducting Bayesian inference in any situation where forward simulations are feasible. However, validating the accuracy and reliability of the inferred…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-21 James Alvey , Carlo R. Contaldi , Mauro Pieroni

Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a flexible and general approach to performing Bayesian inference: In SBI, a neural network is trained on synthetic data simulated from a model and used to rapidly infer posterior distributions for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Julius Vetter , Manuel Gloeckler , Daniel Gedon , Jakob H. Macke

Model parameter inference is a universal problem across science. This challenge is particularly pronounced in developmental biology, where faithful mechanistic descriptions require spatial-stochastic models with numerous parameters, yet…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-07-16 Michael A. Ramirez-Sierra , Thomas R. Sokolowski

X-ray spectral fitting in high-energy astrophysics can be reliably accelerated using Machine Learning. In particular, Simulation-based Inference (SBI) produces accurate posterior distributions in the Gaussian and Poisson regime for…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-09 Simon Dupourqué , Didier Barret