Related papers: 3 Lessons from Hyperinflationary Periods

Short-term survival and an exuberant plunge into building our future are generating a new kind of unintended consequence -- hidden fragility. This is a direct effect of the sophistication and structural complexity of the socio-technical…

I present a brief review of astro-ph/0406099, which argues that there is a limit on the number of efolds of inflation which are observable in a universe which undergoes an eternally accelerated expansion in the future. Such an acceleration…

Hyperbolic inflation is an extension of the slow-roll inflation in multi-field models. We extend hyperbolic inflation by adding a gauge field and find four-type attractor solutions: slow-roll inflation, hyperbolic inflation, anisotropic…

Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful `cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both…

Social inflation, which is the rise in liability claim costs beyond general economic inflation, has become a major concern for insurers and reinsurers, yet it is difficult to quantify because litigation outcomes are heavy-tailed and the mix…

In speculative markets, risk-free profit opportunities are eliminated by traders exploiting them. Markets are therefore often described as "informationally efficient", rapidly removing predictable price changes, and leaving only residual…

The problem of causal inference is to determine if a given probability distribution on observed variables is compatible with some causal structure. The difficult case is when the causal structure includes latent variables. We here introduce…

Decoupling of heavy modes in effective low energy theory is one of the most fundamental concepts in physics. It tells us that modes must have a negligible effect on the physics of gravitational backgrounds with curvature radius larger than…

In negatively curved field spaces, inflation can be realised even in steep potentials. Hyperinflation invokes the `centrifugal force' of a field orbiting the hyperbolic plane to sustain inflation. We generalise hyperinflation by showing…

These lecture notes are organized into ten lessons that summarize the status of inflationary cosmology.

Product information labels can help users understand complex information leading them to make better decisions. One area where consumers are particularly prone to make costly decision-making errors is long-term saving, which requires…

We discuss the stationary states of a model economy in which $N$ heterogeneous adaptive consumers purchase commodity bundles repeatedly from $P$ sellers. The system undergoes a transition from an inefficient to an efficient state as the…

We analyze the forces that explain inflation using a panel of 122 countries from 1997 to 2015 with 37 regressors. 98 models motivated by economic theory are compared to a gradient boosting algorithm, non-linearities and structural breaks…

We investigate density perturbations in the chain inflation scenario, where the inflaton undergoes successive tunneling transitions along one field direction. First we show that when the bubble walls associated with such a phase transition…

We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2019. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate…

Climate adaptation could yield significant benefits. However, the uncertainty of which future climate scenarios will occur decreases the feasibility of proactively adapting. Climate adaptation projects could be underwritten by benefits paid…

We propose a new class of inflationary models in which inflation takes place while the inflaton is climbing up a potential hill due to a coupling to gravity. We study their attractor behavior, and investigate its relation with known…

A scenario where inflation emerges as a response to protect the holographic principle is described. A two fluid model in a closed universe inflation picture is assumed, and a possible explanation for secondary exponential expansion phases…

Existing well investigated Predictive Process Monitoring techniques typically construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it…

Typically cold inflation with positive vacuum energy density dilutes all matter except the quan- tum fluctuations which are stretched outside the Hubble patch during inflation. However the cyclic- inflation scenario, where the universe…