Related papers: 3 Lessons from Hyperinflationary Periods
The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. Demand and supply are balanced on a knife-edge because electric power cannot be economically stored, end user demand is…
We consider the model of ``Chain Inflation,'' in which the period of inflation in our universe took the form of a long sequence of quantum tunneling events. We find that in the simplest such scenario, in which the tunneling processes are…
On the one hand, inflation is an extremely convincing scenario: it solves most cosmological paradoxes and generates fluctuations that became the seeds for the growth of structures. It, however, suffers from a "naturalness" problem:…
Recent results from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe have been called a corroboration, or even a confirmation, of inflation. Yet, the results include features that require, at least, a significant distortion of what is usually meant…
A unified approach to quintessence and inflation is investigated with the use of a single scalar field. It is argued that successful potentials have to approximate a combination of exponential and inverse power-law decline in the limit of…
Modern evolvements of the technologies have been leading to a profound influence on the financial market. The introduction of constituents like Exchange-Traded Funds, and the wide-use of advanced technologies such as algorithmic trading,…
In recent literature on eternal inflation, a number of measures have been introduced which attempt to assign probabilities to different pocket universes by counting the number of each type of pocket according to a specific procedure. We…
Post-pandemic world has thrown up several challenges, such as, high inflation, low growth, high debt, collapse of economies, political instability, job losses, lowering of income in addition to damages caused natural disasters, more…
We test for the long-run relationship between stock prices, inflation and its uncertainty for different U.S. sector stock indexes, over the period 2002M7 to 2015M10. For this purpose we use a cointegration analysis with one structural break…
We note that the essential idea of inflation, that the universe underwent a brief period of accelerated expansion followed by a long period of decelerated expansion, can be encapsulated in a "closure condition" which relates the amount of…
This paper tackles challenges in pricing and revenue projections due to consumer uncertainty. We propose a novel data-based approach for firms facing unknown consumer type distributions. Unlike existing methods, we assume firms only observe…
Usually inflation ends either by a slow rolling of the inflaton field, which gradually becomes faster and faster, or by a first-order phase transition. We describe a model where inflation ends in a different way, due to a very rapid rolling…
Financial misconceptions carry direct economic costs, from panic selling to equity market avoidance, yet they are notoriously resistant to correction. Traditional financial literacy interventions are constrained by cost, reach, and a…
We show how the quantum-to-classical transition of the cosmological fluctuations produced during an inflationary stage can be described using the consistent histories approach. We identify the corresponding histories in the limit of…
The problem of handling adaptivity in data analysis, intentional or not, permeates a variety of fields, including test-set overfitting in ML challenges and the accumulation of invalid scientific discoveries. We propose a mechanism for…
Inflation is a major determinant for allocation decisions and its forecast is a fundamental aim of governments and central banks. However, forecasting inflation is not a trivial task, as its prediction relies on low frequency, highly…
Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…
Statisticians and data scientists find insights that help lead to better understanding and better outcomes. When clients and managers come to us for help (and even when they don't), we want to share our advice. While we should be free to…
The mechanism of thermal inflation, a relatively short period of accelerated expansion after primordial inflation, is a desirable ingredient for a certain class of particle physics models if they are not to be in contention with the…
Preheating after inflation may lead to nonthermal phase transitions with symmetry restoration. These phase transitions may occur even if the total energy density of fluctuations produced during reheating is relatively small as compared with…