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Everyday decisions often involve many different levels. What connects these higher and lower level decisions hierarchy to one another determines how the cause(s) of failures are interpreted. It is hypothesized that decision confidence…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-11-01 Amir. M Mousavi Harris , Jamal Esmaily , Sajjad Zabbah , Reza Ebrahimpour , Bahador Bahrami

We suggest that one individual holds multiple degrees of belief about an outcome, given the evidence. We then investigate the implications of such noisy probabilities for a buyer and a seller of binary options and find the odds agreed upon…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2018-12-03 Ulrik W. Nash

Animals and humans make decisions based on their expected outcomes. Since relevant outcomes are often delayed, perceiving delays and choosing between earlier versus later rewards (intertemporal decision-making) is an essential component of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2014-02-21 Vijay Mohan K Namboodiri , Stefan Mihalas , Tanya Marton , Marshall G Hussain Shuler

This paper presents an empirical investigation of the relation between decision speed and decision quality for a real-world setting of cognitively-demanding decisions in which the timing of decisions is endogenous: professional chess.…

General Economics · Economics 2022-01-27 Uwe Sunde , Dainis Zegners , Anthony Strittmatter

Information from preceding trials of cognitive tasks can bias performance in the current trial, a phenomenon referred to as interference. Subjects performing visual working memory tasks exhibit interference in their trial-to-trial response…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-07-25 Zachary P Kilpatrick

When subjected to automated decision-making, decision subjects may strategically modify their observable features in ways they believe will maximize their chances of receiving a favorable decision. In many practical situations, the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-10-10 Keegan Harris , Valerie Chen , Joon Sik Kim , Ameet Talwalkar , Hoda Heidari , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Recent work has shown that language models can self-improve by maximizing their own confidence in their predictions, without relying on external verifiers or reward signals. In this work, we study the test-time scaling of language models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-25 Matthias Otth , Jonas Hübotter , Ido Hakimi , Andreas Krause

Predicting undesirable events during the execution of a business process instance provides the process participants with an opportunity to intervene and keep the process aligned with its goals. Few approaches for tackling this challenge…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-09-22 Jens Brunk , Matthias Stierle , Leon Papke , Kate Revoredo , Martin Matzner , Jörg Becker

Evaluating the efficiency of human-AI interactions is challenging, including subjective and objective quality aspects. With the focus on the human experience of the explanations, evaluations of explanation methods have become mostly…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Helena Löfström

Trust is essential in shaping human interactions with one another and with robots. This paper discusses how human trust in robot capabilities transfers across multiple tasks. We first present a human-subject study of two distinct task…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-08-27 Harold Soh , Yaqi Xie , Min Chen , David Hsu

People's trust in prediction models can be affected by many factors, including domain expertise like knowledge about the application domain and experience with predictive modelling. However, to what extent and why domain expertise impacts…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2021-09-20 Jeroen Ooge , Katrien Verbert

Gallice and Monz\'on (2019) present a natural environment that sustains full co-operation in one-shot social dilemmas among a finite number of self-interested agents. They demonstrate that in a sequential public goods game, where agents…

General Economics · Economics 2026-03-13 Chowdhury Mohammad Sakib Anwar , Konstantinos Georgalos

Aleatoric uncertainty captures the inherent randomness of the data, such as measurement noise. In Bayesian regression, we often use a Gaussian observation model, where we control the level of aleatoric uncertainty with a noise variance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Sanyam Kapoor , Wesley J. Maddox , Pavel Izmailov , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Controlled experiments (A/B tests or randomized field experiments) are the de facto standard to make data-driven decisions when implementing changes and observing customer responses. The methodology to analyze such experiments should be…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-06 Shafi Kamalbasha , Manuel J. A. Eugster

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Federico Cerutti , Lance M. Kaplan , Angelika Kimmig , Murat Sensoy

The psychology of the individual is continuously changing in nature, which has a significant influence on the evolutionary dynamics of populations. To study the influence of the continuously changing psychology of individuals on the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Minyu Feng , Bin Pi , Liang-Jian Deng , Jürgen Kurths

Increasing anthropomorphic robot behavioral design could affect trust and cooperation positively. However, studies have shown contradicting results and suggest a task-dependent relationship between robots that display emotions and trust.…

Trust is a fundamental concept in many real-world applications such as e-commerce and peer-to-peer networks. In these applications, users can generate local opinions about the counterparts based on direct experiences, and these opinions can…

Databases · Computer Science 2012-11-12 Yuan Yao , Hanghang Tong , Xifeng Yan , Feng Xu , Jian Lu

Knowing when a classifier's prediction can be trusted is useful in many applications and critical for safely using AI. While the bulk of the effort in machine learning research has been towards improving classifier performance,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Heinrich Jiang , Been Kim , Melody Y. Guan , Maya Gupta

This paper provides a general overview of different perspectives and studies on trust, offers a definition of trust, and provides factors that play a substantial role in developing social trust, and shows from which perspectives it can be…

General Economics · Economics 2021-06-28 Nazli Mohammad , Yvonne Stedham