Related papers: Bayesian analysis of diffusion-driven multi-type e…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has promoted vigorous scientific activity in an effort to understand, advice and control the pandemic. Data is now freely available at a staggering rate worldwide. Unfortunately, this unprecedented level of…
We here propose to model active and cumulative cases data from COVID-19 by a continuous effective model based on a modified diffusion equation under Lifshitz scaling with a dynamic diffusion coefficient. The proposed model is rich enough to…
A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility, is presented. The dynamical…
Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which…
The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…
We study the impact of contact heterogeneity on epidemic dynamics. A system characterized by multiple susceptible populations is considered. The description of the spread of an infectious disease is obtained through the study of a system of…
Following the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and pending the establishment of vaccination campaigns, several non pharmaceutical interventions such as partial and full lockdown, quarantine and measures of physical distancing have been…
The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly evolved into an unprecedented crisis. The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model and its variants have been used for modeling the pandemic. However, time-independent parameters in the classical…
Modern Bayesian approaches and workflows emphasize in how simulation is important in the context of model developing. Simulation can help researchers understand how the model behaves in a controlled setting and can be used to stress the…
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…
This work provides an overview on deterministic and stochastic models that have previously been proposed by us to study the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe and USA. Briefly, we describe realistic…
In this work we evaluate the applicability of an ensemble of population models and machine learning models to predict the near future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular use case in Spain. We rely solely in open and public…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting the lives of billions across the globe. Even after taking massive protective measures like nation-wide lockdowns, discontinuation of international flight services, rigorous testing etc., the infection…