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The performance of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers heavily depends on the tuning of the Markov kernels used in the path proposal. For SMC samplers with unadjusted Markov kernels, standard tuning objectives, such as the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-11 Kyurae Kim , Zuheng Xu , Jacob R. Gardner , Trevor Campbell

We present a multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) algorithm with adaptively refined meshes and accurately computed stopping-criteria utilizing adjoint-based a posteriori error analysis for differential equations. This is in contrast to classical…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-06-08 Jehanzeb Chaudhry , Zachary Stevens

Statistical inference methods are fundamentally important in machine learning. Most state-of-the-art inference algorithms are variants of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or variational inference (VI). However, both methods struggle with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-17 Yichuan Zhang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

We propose Continual Repeated Annealed Flow Transport Monte Carlo (CRAFT), a method that combines a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler (itself a generalization of Annealed Importance Sampling) with variational inference using normalizing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-07 Alexander G. D. G. Matthews , Michael Arbel , Danilo J. Rezende , Arnaud Doucet

We construct a new framework for accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo in posterior sampling problems where standard methods are limited by the computational cost of the likelihood, or of numerical models embedded therein. Our approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-06 Patrick R. Conrad , Youssef M. Marzouk , Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has been used for a wide variety of stochastic applications. In this paper we consider its use in situations in which input random variables can be replaced by similar approximate random variables…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-04-08 Mike Giles , Oliver Sheridan-Methven

This paper introduces a class of Monte Carlo algorithms which are based upon the simulation of a Markov process whose quasi-stationary distribution coincides with a distribution of interest. This differs fundamentally from, say, current…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-14 Murray Pollock , Paul Fearnhead , Adam M. Johansen , Gareth O. Roberts

One of the major problems in adaptive filtering is the problem of system identification. It has been studied extensively due to its immense practical importance in a variety of fields. The underlying goal is to identify the impulse response…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-05-11 Muhammad Ali Raza Anjum

In this study, we propose quantum annealing-enhanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo (QAEMCMC), where QA is integrated into the MCMC subroutine. QA efficiently explores low-energy configurations and overcomes local minima, enabling the generation…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-02-13 Shunta Arai , Tadashi Kadowaki

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Peter Green , Simon Maskell

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-08 Brendan D. Tracey , David H. Wolpert

We propose a new class of learning algorithms that combines variational approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Naive algorithms that use the variational approximation as proposal distribution can perform poorly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Nando de Freitas , Pedro Hojen-Sorensen , Michael I. Jordan , Stuart Russell

Spectral subsampling MCMC was recently proposed to speed up Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for long stationary univariate time series by subsampling periodogram observations in the frequency domain. This article extends the approach to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-20 Mattias Villani , Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Robert Salomone

Differentiable programming has emerged as a key programming paradigm empowering rapid developments of deep learning while its applications to important computational methods such as Monte Carlo remain largely unexplored. Here we present the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-08-28 Shi-Xin Zhang , Zhou-Quan Wan , Hong Yao

We propose a hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) technique applicable to high-dimensional multivariate normal distributions that effectively samples along chaotic trajectories. The method is predicated on the freedom of choice of the HMC momentum…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-04-26 Nirag Kadakia

Recent advancements in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and surrogate modelling have significantly enhanced the feasibility of Bayesian analysis across engineering fields. However, the selection and integration of surrogate models…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-11-22 Leon Riccius , Iuri B. C. M. Rocha , Joris Bierkens , Hanne Kekkonen , Frans P. van der Meer

In the era of Big Data, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, which are currently essential for Bayesian estimation, face significant computational challenges owing to their sequential nature. To achieve a faster and more effective…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-08 Tomoki Matsumoto

This work presents self-rewarding sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), an inference-time scaling algorithm enabling effective sampling of masked diffusion language models (MDLMs). Our algorithm stems from the observation that most existing MDLMs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Ziwei Luo , Ziqi Jin , Lei Wang , Lidong Bing , Thomas B. Schön

A formal mean square error expansion (MSE) is derived for Euler--Maruyama numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations (SDE). The error expansion is used to construct a pathwise a posteriori adaptive time stepping…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-07-16 Håkon Hoel , Juho Häppölä , Raúl Tempone
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