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Bayesian Optimization is a popular approach for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Its key idea is to use a surrogate model to approximate the objective and, importantly, quantify the associated uncertainty that allows a sequential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-05 Haoxian Chen , Henry Lam

We show that it is feasible to carry out exact Bayesian inference for non-Gaussian state space models using an adaptive Metropolis Hastings sampling scheme with the likelihood approximated by the particle filter. Furthermore, an adapyive…

Computation · Statistics 2009-11-03 Ralph Silva , Paolo Giordani , Robert Kohn , Mike Pitt

State estimation or filtering serves as a fundamental task to enable intelligent decision-making in applications such as autonomous vehicles, robotics, healthcare monitoring, smart grids, intelligent transportation, and predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Aamir Hussain Chughtai

Designing optimal Bayes filters for nonlinear non-Gaussian systems is a challenging task. The main difficulties are: 1) representing complex beliefs, 2) handling non-Gaussian noise, and 3) marginalizing past states. To address these…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Sangli Teng , Harry Zhang , David Jin , Ashkan Jasour , Ram Vasudevan , Maani Ghaffari , Luca Carlone

In this paper, we aim to design and analyze distributed Bayesian estimation algorithms for sensor networks. The challenges we address are to (i) derive a distributed provably-correct algorithm in the functional space of probability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Parth Paritosh , Nikolay Atanasov , Sonia Martinez

This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-15 Jarrad Courts , Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Thomas Schön , Brett Ninness

Event-based sampling has been proposed as a general technique for lowering the average communication rate in remote state estimation, which can be important in scenarios with constraints on resources such as network bandwidth or sensor…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-29 Johan Ruuskanen , Anton Cervin

The Gaussian Filter (GF) is one of the most widely used filtering algorithms; instances are the Extended Kalman Filter, the Unscented Kalman Filter and the Divided Difference Filter. GFs represent the belief of the current state by a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2015-06-09 Manuel Wüthrich , Sebastian Trimpe , Daniel Kappler , Stefan Schaal

This technical note considers the identification of nonlinear discrete-time systems with additive process noise but without measurement noise. In particular, we propose a method and its associated algorithm to identify the system nonlinear…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-04-27 Wei Pan , Ye Yuan , Jorge Gonçalves , Guy-Bart Stan

A nonparametric Bayes approach is proposed for the problem of estimating a sparse sequence based on Gaussian random variables. We adopt the popular two-group prior with one component being a point mass at zero, and the other component being…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-31 Yunbo Ouyang , Feng Liang

Inverse problems are prevalent in both scientific research and engineering applications. In the context of Bayesian inverse problems, sampling from the posterior distribution can be particularly challenging when the forward models are…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-17 Zhihang Xu , Xiaoyu Zhu , Daoji Li , Qifeng Liao

We generalize the popular ensemble Kalman filter to an ensemble transform filter where the prior distribution can take the form of a Gaussian mixture or a Gaussian kernel density estimator. The design of the filter is based on a continuous…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-27 Sebastian Reich

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-27 Benjamin Letham , Brian Karrer , Guilherme Ottoni , Eytan Bakshy

Surrogate testing is used widely to determine the nature of the process generating the given empirical sample. In the present study, the usefulness of phase-randomized surrogates, amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (AAFT) and iterated…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Radhakrishnan Nagarajan

Bayesian networks provide a method of representing conditional independence between random variables and computing the probability distributions associated with these random variables. In this paper, we extend Bayesian network structures to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Eric Driver , Darryl Morrell

This paper studies system identification for nonlinear state-space models, a problem that arises across many fields yet remains challenging in practice. Focusing on maximum likelihood estimation, we employ Bayesian optimization (BayesOpt)…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-30 Hao Tu , Jackson Fogelquist , Iman Askari , Xinfan Lin , Yebin Wang , Shiguang Deng , Huazhen Fang

We present a detailed analytic framework for studying multimode non-Gaussian states that are conditionally generated when few modes of a multimode Gaussian state are subject to photon-number-resolving detectors. From the output state Wigner…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-04-22 Daiqin Su , Casey R. Myers , Krishna Kumar Sabapathy

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Tomoya Wakayama , Masaaki Imaizumi

Bayesian computation for filtering and forecasting analysis is developed for a broad class of dynamic models. The ability to scale-up such analyses in non-Gaussian, nonlinear multivariate time series models is advanced through the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Isaac Lavine , Andrew Cron , Mike West

Complex dynamic systems can be investigated by fitting mechanistic stochastic dynamic models to time series data. In this context, commonly used Monte Carlo inference procedures for model selection and parameter estimation quickly become…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-24 Jesse Wheeler , Aaron J. Abkemeier , Edward L. Ionides
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