Related papers: Consistent least squares estimation in population-…
Branching processes $(Z_n)_{n \ge 0}$ in a varying environment generalize the Galton-Watson process, in that they allow time-dependence of the offspring distribution. Our main results concern general criteria for a.s. extinction,…
This article is concerned with the long time behavior of neutral genetic population models, with fixed population size. We design an explicit, finite, exact, genealogical tree based representation of stationary populations that holds both…
Overpopulation and environmental degradation due to inadequate resource-use are outcomes of human's ecosystem engineering that has profoundly modified the world's landscape. Despite the age-old concern that unchecked population and economic…
We consider stationary hidden Markov models with finite state space and nonparametric modeling of the emission distributions. It has remained unknown until very recently that such models are identifiable. In this paper, we propose a new…
We consider a collection of Markov chains that model the evolution of multitype biological populations. The state space of the chains is the positive orthant, and the boundary of the orthant is absorbing representing the extinction states…
We look at the interaction of dispersal and environmental stochasticity in $n$-patch models. We are able to prove persistence and extinction results even in the setting when the dispersal rates are stochastic. As applications we look at…
A branching random walk in presence of an absorbing wall moving at a constant velocity $v$ undergoes a phase transition as the velocity $v$ of the wall varies. Below the critical velocity $v_c$, the population has a non-zero survival…
We extend in two directions our previous results about the sampling and the empirical measures of immortal branching Markov processes. Direct applications to molecular biology are rigorous estimates of the mutation rates of polymerase chain…
Majority-vote ensembles achieve variance reduction by averaging over diverse, approximately independent base learners. When training data exhibits Markov dependence, as in time-series forecasting, reinforcement learning (RL) replay buffers,…
We study asymptotic behavior of conditional least squares estimators for 2-type doubly symmetric critical irreducible continuous state and continuous time branching processes with immigration based on discrete time (low frequency)…
Consider a branching Markov process with values in some general type space. Conditional on survival up to generation $N$, the genealogy of the extant population defines a random marked metric measure space, where individuals are marked by…
In this article we consider the nonparametric robust estimation problem for regression models in continuous time with semi-Markov noises observed in discrete time moments. An adaptive model selection procedure is proposed. A sharp…
Motivated by global warming issues, we consider a time se- ries that consists of a nondecreasing trend observed with station- ary fluctuations, nonparametric estimation of the trend under monotonicity assumption is considered. The rescaled…
In numerous papers, the behaviour of stochastic population models is investigated through the sign of a real quantity which is the growth rate of the population near the extinction set. In many cases, it is proven that when this growth rate…
The paper continues the authors' work on the adaptive Wynn algorithm in a nonlinear regression model. In the present paper it is shown that if the mean response function satisfies a condition of `saturated identifiability', which was…
We address the problem of estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous Markov chain given only noisy, aggregate data. This arises when a population of individuals behave independently according to a Markov chain, but individual sample…
The stochastic SIRS model is a continuous-time Markov chain modelling the spread of infectious diseases with temporary immunity, in a homogeneously-mixing population of fixed size $N$. We study the scaling behaviour of the extinction time…
Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…
Extinction of a long-lived isolated stochastic population can be described as an exponentially slow decay of quasi-stationary probability distribution of the population size. We address extinction of a population in a two-population system…
We study self-organization in a minimally nonlinear model of large random ecosystems. Populations evolve over time according to a piecewise linear system of ordinary differential equations subject to a non-negativity constraint resulting in…