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Educational policymakers often lack data on student outcomes where standardized tests were not administered. Machine learning can predict unobserved outcomes in target populations using source population data. However, covariate…

We study double descent and benign overfitting in macroeconomic forecasting. We document that double-descent risk curves arise in standard macroeconomic datasets that are driven by a small number of latent factors, and we characterize when…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-18 Andrea Carriero , Florian Huber , Davide Pettenuzzo

Machine learning algorithms are increasingly used to inform critical decisions. There is a growing concern about bias, that algorithms may produce uneven outcomes for individuals in different demographic groups. In this work, we measure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-01 Runshan Fu , Yangfan Liang , Peter Zhang

From the sampling of data to the initialisation of parameters, randomness is ubiquitous in modern Machine Learning practice. Understanding the statistical fluctuations engendered by the different sources of randomness in prediction is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-03 Bruno Loureiro , Cédric Gerbelot , Maria Refinetti , Gabriele Sicuro , Florent Krzakala

In this paper, we provide a precise characterization of generalization properties of high dimensional kernel ridge regression across the under- and over-parameterized regimes, depending on whether the number of training data n exceeds the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-25 Fanghui Liu , Zhenyu Liao , Johan A. K. Suykens

Understanding generalization and estimation error of estimators for simple models such as linear and generalized linear models has attracted a lot of attention recently. This is in part due to an interesting observation made in machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-09 Mojtaba Sahraee-Ardakan , Tung Mai , Anup Rao , Ryan Rossi , Sundeep Rangan , Alyson K. Fletcher

We consider ordinary least squares estimation and variations on least squares estimation such as penalized (regularized) least squares and spectral shrinkage estimates for problems with p > n and associated problems with prediction of new…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-19 Ronald Christensen

Various classical machine learning models, including linear regression, kernel methods, and deep neural networks, exhibit double descent, in which the test risk peaks near the interpolation threshold and then decreases in the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-21 Kensuke Kamisoyama , Lento Nagano , Koji Terashi

Deep neural networks are known to exhibit a `double descent' behavior as the number of parameters increases. Recently, it has also been shown that an `epochwise double descent' effect exists in which the generalization error initially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-30 Cory Stephenson , Tyler Lee

The bias-variance tradeoff tells us that as model complexity increases, bias falls and variances increases, leading to a U-shaped test error curve. However, recent empirical results with over-parameterized neural networks are marked by a…

This study demonstrates that double descent can be mitigated by adding a dropout layer adjacent to the fully connected linear layer. The unexpected double-descent phenomenon garnered substantial attention in recent years, resulting in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Tian-Le Yang , Joe Suzuki

Machine Learning (ML) is increasingly used across many disciplines with impressive reported results. However, recent studies suggest published performance of ML models are often overoptimistic. Validity concerns are underscored by findings…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Pouria Saidi , Gautam Dasarathy , Visar Berisha

Motivated by a recent literature on the double-descent phenomenon in machine learning, we consider highly over-parameterized models in causal inference, including synthetic control with many control units. In such models, there may be so…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-16 Jann Spiess , Guido Imbens , Amar Venugopal

A recent line of research has highlighted the existence of a "double descent" phenomenon in deep learning, whereby increasing the number of training examples $N$ causes the generalization error of neural networks to peak when $N$ is of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-12 Stéphane d'Ascoli , Levent Sagun , Giulio Biroli

In classical statistics, the bias-variance trade-off describes how varying a model's complexity (e.g., number of fit parameters) affects its ability to make accurate predictions. According to this trade-off, optimal performance is achieved…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-05 Jason W. Rocks , Pankaj Mehta

The risk of overparameterized models, in particular deep neural networks, is often double-descent shaped as a function of the model size. Recently, it was shown that the risk as a function of the early-stopping time can also be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Fatih Furkan Yilmaz , Reinhard Heckel

Machine Unlearning aims to remove specific data from trained models, addressing growing privacy and ethical concerns. We provide a theoretical analysis of a simple and widely used method - gradient ascent - used to reverse the influence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Odelia Melamed , Gilad Yehudai , Gal Vardi

This paper provides an introduction to Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML). DML is a general approach to performing inference about a target parameter in the presence of nuisance functions: objects that are needed to identify the target…

Random Forests (RFs) are among the state-of-the-art in machine learning and offer excellent performance with nearly zero parameter tuning. Remarkably, RFs seem to be impervious to overfitting even though their basic building blocks are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Sebastian Buschjäger , Katharina Morik

Farquhar et al. [2021] show that correcting for active learning bias with underparameterised models leads to improved downstream performance. For overparameterised models such as NNs, however, correction leads either to decreased or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Chelsea Murray , James U. Allingham , Javier Antorán , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato