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Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have recently emerged as the dominant model in computer vision. If provided with enough training data, they predict almost any visual quantity. In a discrete setting, such as classification, CNNs are not…
Time-varying parameter vector autoregression provides a flexible framework to capture structural changes within time series. However, when applied to high-dimensional data, this model encounters challenges of over-parametrization and…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…
The stochastic motion of a particle with long-range correlated increments (the moving phase) which is intermittently interrupted by immobilizations (the traping phase) in a disordered medium is considered in the presence of an external…
Recent economic events, including the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, have exposed limitations in linear Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models for forecasting and structural analysis. Nonlinear dimension…
There is a fast growing literature that set-identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted…
Network modeling of high-dimensional time series data is a key learning task due to its widespread use in a number of application areas, including macroeconomics, finance and neuroscience. While the problem of sparse modeling based on…
The discrete-time GARCH methodology which has had such a profound influence on the modelling of heteroscedasticity in time series is intuitively well motivated in capturing many `stylized facts' concerning financial series, and is now…
This paper proposes a dynamic network framework for uncovering latent community paths in high-dimensional VAR-type models. By embedding a degree-corrected stochastic co-blockmodel (ScBM) into the transition matrices of VAR-type systems, we…
Many recent advancements in quantum computing leverage strong drives on nonlinear systems for state preparation, signal amplification, or gate operation. However, the interplay within such strongly driven system introduces multi-scale…
We consider a structural stochastic volatility model for the loss from a large portfolio of credit risky assets. Both the asset value and the volatility processes are correlated through systemic Brownian motions, with default determined by…
Stochastic reduced-order models are widely used to represent the effective dynamics of complex systems, but estimating their drift and diffusion coefficients from data remains challenging. Standard approaches often rely on short-time…
Granger Causality (GC) offers an elegant statistical framework to study the association between multivariate time series data. Vector autoregressive models (VAR) are simple and easy to fit, but have limited application because of their…
While seasonality inherent to raw macroeconomic data is commonly removed by seasonal adjustment techniques before it is used for structural inference, this may distort valuable information in the data. As an alternative method to commonly…
In contemporary neuroscience, a key area of interest is dynamic effective connectivity, which is crucial for understanding the dynamic interactions and causal relationships between different brain regions. Dynamic effective connectivity can…
In this paper, we investigate a constrained formulation of neural networks where the output is a convex function of the input. We show that the convexity constraints can be enforced on both fully connected and convolutional layers, making…
We study identification in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) in which the endogenous variables enter nonlinearly on the left-hand side of the model, a feature we term endogenous nonlinearity, to distinguish it from the more familiar…
Simultaneous inference for high-dimensional non-Gaussian time series is always considered to be a challenging problem. Such tasks require not only robust estimation of the coefficients in the random process, but also deriving limiting…
Modern recording techniques enable neuroscientists to simultaneously study neural activity across large populations of neurons, with capturing predictor-dependent correlations being a fundamental challenge in neuroscience. Moreover, the…
This article presents various weak laws of large numbers for the so-called realised covariation of a bivariate stationary stochastic process which is not a semimartingale. More precisely, we consider two cases: Bivariate moving average…