Related papers: Cointegration with Occasionally Binding Constraint…
This paper focuses on the long-term behavior of solutions to nonlinear stochastic Fokker-Planck equations driven by common noise, where the drift term has a linear dependence on the measure. These equations, which describe the evolution of…
In the rapidly rotating limit, we derive a balanced set of reduced equations governing the strongly nonlinear development of the convective wall-mode instability in the interior of a general container. The model illustrates that wall-mode…
As a regression technique in spatial statistics, the spatiotemporally varying coefficient model (STVC) is an important tool for discovering nonstationary and interpretable response-covariate associations over both space and time. However,…
Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…
Single-index models or time-to-event models are frequently applied in empirical research. These models are non-identifiable in presence of unknown (dependent) censoring or competing risks and do not give informative results in empirical…
In this paper, we consider the nonstationary matrix-valued time series with common stochastic trends. Unlike the traditional factor analysis which flattens matrix observations into vectors, we adopt a matrix factor model in order to fully…
We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…
Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal model (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or nonlinearity.…
Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal models (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or…
In many environmental applications involving spatially-referenced data, limitations on the number and locations of observations motivate the need for practical and efficient models for spatial interpolation, or kriging. A key component of…
High-dimensional panels of time series often arise in finance and macroeconomics, where co-movements within groups of panel components occur. Extracting these groupings from the data provides a coarse-grained description of the complex…
We extend the standard VAR to jointly model the dynamics of binary, censored and continuous variables, and develop an efficient estimation approach that scales well to high-dimensional settings. In an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we…
Motivated by the maneuvering target tracking with sensors such as radar and sonar, this paper considers the joint and recursive estimation of the dynamic state and the time-varying process noise covariance in nonlinear state space models.…
Kinetically constrained models (KCMs) are interacting particle systems introduced in the '80s by physicists to have accessible stochastic models with glassy-type dynamics. The key mechanism behind the complex evolution of these otherwise…
Cointegration analysis is used to estimate the long-run equilibrium relations between several time series. The coefficients of these long-run equilibrium relations are the cointegrating vectors. In this paper, we provide a sparse estimator…
Predictive linear and nonlinear models based on kernel machines or deep neural networks have been used to discover dependencies among time series. This paper proposes an efficient nonlinear modeling approach for multiple time series, with a…
Quantum gravity has long remained elusive from an observational standpoint. Developing effective cosmological models motivated by the fundamental aspects of quantum gravity is crucial for bridging theory with observations. One key aspect is…
The multiple-subject vector autoregression (multi-VAR) model captures heterogeneous network Granger causality across subjects by decomposing individual sparse VAR transition matrices into commonly shared and subject-unique paths. The model…
Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…