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Fitting probabilistic models to data is often difficult, due to the general intractability of the partition function and its derivatives. Here we propose a new parameter estimation technique that does not require computing an intractable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-13 Jascha Sohl-Dickstein , Peter Battaglino , Michael R. DeWeese

This paper concerns the adaptive control problem for a class of nonlinear stochastic systems in which the state update is given by a nonlinear function of linear dynamics plus additive stochastic noise. Such systems arise in a wide range of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-09 Lantian Zhang , Bo Wahlberg , Silun Zhang

This paper develops a systematic parametric method for analyzing stochastic systems under volatility uncertainty within the $G$-expectation framework. Leveraging the dual representation of the $G$-expectation as a supremum over a family of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-27 Guangqian Zhao

Let $(X_i)_{i=1,...,n}$ be a possibly nonstationary sequence such that $\mathscr{L}(X_i)=P_n$ if $i\leq n\theta$ and $\mathscr{L}(X_i)=Q_n$ if $i>n\theta$, where $0<\theta <1$ is the location of the change-point to be estimated. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Samir Ben Hariz , Jonathan J. Wylie , Qiang Zhang

This paper proposes consistent estimators for transformation parameters in semiparametric models. The problem is to find the optimal transformation into the space of models with a predetermined regression structure like additive or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Oliver Linton , Stefan Sperlich , Ingrid Van Keilegom

As one of the most commonly seen data challenges, missing data, in particular, multiple, non-monotone missing patterns, complicates estimation and inference due to the fact that missingness mechanisms are often not missing at random, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Jianing Dong , Raymond K. W. Wong , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

Obtaining initial conditions and parameterizations leading to a model consistent with available measurements or safety specifications is important for many applications. Examples include model (in-)validation, prediction, fault diagnosis,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-03-20 Stefan Streif , Philipp Rumschinski , Didier Henrion , Rolf Findeisen

We introduce a new family of estimators for unnormalized statistical models. Our family of estimators is parameterized by two nonlinear functions and uses a single sample from an auxiliary distribution, generalizing Maximum Likelihood Monte…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Miika Pihlaja , Michael Gutmann , Aapo Hyvarinen

Despite the risk of misspecification they are tied to, parametric models continue to be used in statistical practice because they are accessible to all. In particular, efficient estimation procedures in parametric models are simple to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-01 Marco Carone , Alexander R. Luedtke , Mark J. van der Laan

In the following, we discuss nonlinear simulations of nonlinear dynamical systems, which are applied in technical and biological models. We deal with different ideas to overcome the treatment of the nonlinearities and discuss a novel…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-12-01 Juergen Geiser , Vahid Yaghoubi

Parameter identification and comparison of dynamical systems is a challenging task in many fields. Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian process regression over time-series data have been successfully applied to infer the parameters of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Philippe Wenk , Alkis Gotovos , Stefan Bauer , Nico Gorbach , Andreas Krause , Joachim M. Buhmann

Estimating and quantifying uncertainty in unknown system parameters from limited data remains a challenging inverse problem in a variety of real-world applications. While many approaches focus on estimating constant parameters, a subset of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-09 Andrea Arnold

A new Bayesian approach to linear system identification has been proposed in a series of recent papers. The main idea is to frame linear system identification as predictor estimation in an infinite dimensional space, with the aid of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-03 Diego Romeres , Gianluigi Pillonetto , Alessandro Chiuso

We propose a new approach for identifying the support points of a locally optimal design when the model is a nonlinear model. In contrast to the commonly used geometric approach, we use an approach based on algebraic tools. Considerations…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-03-05 Min Yang , John Stufken

Inferring control parameters in non-linear dynamical systems is an important task in analysing general dynamical behaviours, particularly in the presence of inherently deterministic chaos. Traditional approaches often rely on…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-06-19 L. Lober , M. S. Palmero , F. A. Rodrigues

We consider the problem of estimating a vector of unknown constant parameters for a class of hybrid dynamical systems -- that is, systems whose state variables exhibit both continuous (flow) and discrete (jump) evolution. Using a hybrid…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-16 Ryan S. Johnson , Stefano Di Cairano , Ricardo G. Sanfelice

Parameter estimation connects mathematical models to real-world data and decision making across many scientific and industrial applications. Standard approaches such as maximum likelihood estimation and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Matthew J Simpson , James S Bennett , Alexander Johnston , Ruth E Baker

A nonlinear inequality is formulated in the paper. An estimate of the rate of decay of solutions to this inequality is obtained. This inequality is of interest in a study of dynamical systems and nonlinear evolution equations. It can be…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2009-03-05 N. S. Hoang , A. G. Ramm

Dynamic systems are ubiquitous in nature and are used to model many processes in biology, chemistry, physics, medicine, and engineering. In particular, systems of ordinary differential equations are commonly used for the mathematical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-19 Ivan Vujačić , Itai Dattner

The paper deals with joint state and parameter estimation for nonlinear continuous-time systems. Based on a guaranteed LPV approximation, the set adaptive observers design problem is solved avoiding the exponential complexity obstruction…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2010-12-06 Denis Efimov , Tarek Raïssi , Ali Zolghadri