Related papers: Modelling COVID-19-III: endemic spread in India
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced public health experts to develop contingent policies to stem the spread of infection, including measures such as partial/complete lockdowns. The effectiveness of these policies has varied with geography,…
This paper investigates the identifiability of a spatial mathematical model of the spread of fast-moving epidemics based on the law of acting masses and diffusion processes. The research algorithm is based on global methods of Sobol…
This is work in progress. We make it accessible hoping that people might find the idea useful. We propose a discrete, recursive 5-compartment model for the spread of epidemics, which we call {\em SEPIR-model}. Under mild assumptions which…
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…
Predicting Pandemic evolution involves complex modeling challenges, often requiring detailed discrete mathematics executed on large volumes of epidemiological data. Differential equations have the advantage of offering smooth, well-behaved…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is changing and impacting lives on a global scale. In this paper, we introduce a mean-field game model in controlling the propagation of epidemics on a spatial domain. The control variable,…
The study carries out predictive modeling based on publicly available COVID-19 data for the duration 01 April to 20 June 2020 pertaining to India and five of its most infected states: Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, and Rajasthan…
COVID-19 has resulted in a public health global crisis. The pandemic control necessitates epidemic models that capture the trends and impacts on infectious individuals. Many exciting models can implement this but they lack practical…
Infectious disease transmission dynamics are particularly sensitive to social contact patterns, and the precautions people take to limit disease transmission. It depends on the age distribution of the community. Thus, knowing the…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…
We provide a probabilistic SIRD model for the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, where we allow the infection, recovery and death rates to be random. In particular, the underlying random factor is driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Our model…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) have been successfully employed on numerous occasions to obtain vital data-driven insights. In this paper we further substantiate the success story of GAMs,…
We analytically study the SEIR (Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed) epidemic model. The aim is to provide simple analytical expressions for the peak and asymptotic values and their characteristic times of the populations affected by the…
We introduce an epidemic spreading model on a network using concepts from percolation theory. The model is motivated by discussing the standard SIR model, with extensions to describe effects of lockdowns within a population. The underlying…
We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased…
The current COVID-19 pandemic has put a huge challenge on the Indian health infrastructure. With more and more people getting affected during the second wave, the hospitals were over-burdened, running out of supplies and oxygen. In this…
The COVID-19 pandemic presents challenges to both public health and the economy. Our objective is to examine how household expenditure, a significant component of private demand, reacts to changes in mobility. This investigation is crucial…
During the Covid-19 pandemic, most governments across the world imposed policies like lock-down of public spaces and restrictions on people's movements to minimize the spread of the virus through physical contact. However, such policies…
Mathematical models are widely recognized as an important tool for analyzing and understanding the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks, predict their future trends, and evaluate public health intervention measures for disease control…