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Smoking is one of the main risk factors that has affected human mortality and life expectancy over the past century. Smoking accounts for a large part of the nonlinearities in the growth of life expectancy and of the geographic and sex…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-29 Yicheng Li , Adrian E. Raftery

The Bayesian evidence, crucial ingredient for model selection, is arguably the most important quantity in Bayesian data analysis: at the same time, however, it is also one of the most difficult to compute. In this paper we present a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 Stefano Rinaldi , Gabriele Demasi , Walter Del Pozzo , Otto A. Hannuksela

It is often of interest to combine available estimates of a similar quantity from multiple data sources. When the corresponding variances of each estimate are also available, a model should take into account the uncertainty of the estimates…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Yujing Yao , R. Todd Ogden , Chubing Zeng , Qixuan Chen

This work proposes a semi-empirical model for the SEI growth process during the early stages of lithium-ion battery formation cycling and aging. By combining a full-cell model which tracks half-cell equilibrium potentials, a…

Materials Science · Physics 2023-07-25 Andrew Weng , Everardo Olide , Iaroslav Kovalchuk , Jason B. Siegel , Anna Stefanopoulou

Battery prognostics and health management predictive models are essential components of safety and reliability protocols in battery management system frameworks. Overall, developing a robust and efficient battery model that aligns with the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-12-05 Hamed Sadegh Kouhestani , Lin Liu , Ruimin Wang , Abhijit Chandra

One of the challenges in model-based control of stochastic dynamical systems is that the state transition dynamics are involved, and it is not easy or efficient to make good-quality predictions of the states. Moreover, there are not many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-08-02 Behnoosh Parsa , Keshav Rajasekaran , Franziska Meier , Ashis G. Banerjee

Time series of counts arise in a variety of forecasting applications, for which traditional models are generally inappropriate. This paper introduces a hierarchical Bayesian formulation applicable to count time series that can easily…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-05-16 Nicolas Chapados

The latest cosmological constraints on the sum of neutrino masses, in combination with the latest laboratory measurements on oscillations, provide ``decisive" Bayesian evidence for the normal neutrino mass hierarchy. We show that this…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2022-09-14 Raul Jimenez , Carlos Pena-Garay , Kathleen Short , Fergus Simpson , Licia Verde

Disease progression models are widely used to inform the diagnosis and treatment of many progressive diseases. However, a significant limitation of existing models is that they do not account for health disparities that can bias the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Erica Chiang , Divya Shanmugam , Ashley N. Beecy , Gabriel Sayer , Deborah Estrin , Nikhil Garg , Emma Pierson

We consider Bayesian hierarchical models for survival analysis, where the survival times are modeled through an underlying diffusion process which determines the hazard rate. We show how these models can be efficiently treated by means of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-11 Gareth O. Roberts , Laura M. Sangalli

This work explores controllability and the control effort required for lithium-ion batteries. Battery packs have become a critical technology in both personal and professional applications as a means to store large amounts of energy.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-14 Preston T. Abadie , Donald J. Docimo

Bayesian hierarchical models are frequently used in practical data analysis contexts. One interpretation of these models is that they provide an indirect way of assigning a prior for unknown parameters, through the introduction of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-01 Brendon J. Brewer

Accurate estimation of the human circadian phase plays an important role in personalized health monitoring, but most existing wearable-based approaches operate retrospectively and require full circadian cycle recordings, leading to high…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-05 Mengzhu Xu , Nemanja Cabrilo , Merel van Gilst , Jean-Paul Linnartz

The goal of this paper is to compare several widely used Bayesian model selection methods in practical model selection problems, highlight their differences and give recommendations about the preferred approaches. We focus on the variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-18 Juho Piironen , Aki Vehtari

We develop an empirical Bayes procedure for estimating the cell means in an unbalanced, two-way additive model with fixed effects. We employ a hierarchical model, which reflects exchangeability of the effects within treatment and within…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-30 Lawrence D. Brown , Gourab Mukherjee , Asaf Weinstein

This paper addresses a common problem with hierarchical time series. Time series analysis demands the series for a model to be the sum of multiple series at corresponding sub-levels. Hierarchical Time Series presents a two-fold problem.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-12-27 Seema Sangari , Xinyan Zhang

Previous likelihood-based linear modeling of nutritional data has been limited by the availability of software that allows flexible error structures in the data. We demonstrate the use of a Bayesian modeling approach to the analysis of such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Andrew Lawson , Daniela Nitcheva

Adding domain knowledge to a learning system is known to improve results. In multi-parameter Bayesian frameworks, such knowledge is incorporated as a prior. On the other hand, various model parameters can have different learning rates in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Sareh Nabi , Houssam Nassif , Joseph Hong , Hamed Mamani , Guido Imbens

Usually one compares the accuracy of two competing classifiers via null hypothesis significance tests (nhst). Yet the nhst tests suffer from important shortcomings, which can be overcome by switching to Bayesian hypothesis testing. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-23 Giorgio Corani , Alessio Benavoli , Janez Demšar , Francesca Mangili , Marco Zaffalon

Understanding battery degradation in electric vehicles (EVs) under real-world conditions remains a critical yet under-explored area of research. Central to this investigation is the challenge of estimating the specific degradation modes in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-20 Raja Abhishek Appana , Faissal El Idrissi , Prashanth Ramesh , Marcello Canova , Chun Yong Kang , Kimoon Um