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We develop tools to do valid post-selective inference for a family of model selection procedures, including choosing a model via cross-validated Lasso. The tools apply universally when the following random vectors are jointly asymptotically…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-13 Jelena Markovic , Lucy Xia , Jonathan Taylor

The covariance matrix plays a fundamental role in many modern exploratory and inferential statistical procedures, including dimensionality reduction, hypothesis testing, and regression. In low-dimensional regimes, where the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-12 Philippe Boileau , Nima S. Hejazi , Mark J. van der Laan , Sandrine Dudoit

Cross-validation (CV) is routinely used across the sciences to select models and tune parameters, and the resulting choices are often interpreted as substantive scientific conclusions (e.g., which variables, mechanisms, or risk factors are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Kenichiro McAlinn , Kōsaku Takanashi

We present a methodology for model evaluation and selection where the sampling mechanism violates the i.i.d. assumption. Our methodology involves a formulation of the bias between the standard Cross-Validation (CV) estimator and the mean…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Oren Yuval , Saharon Rosset

Cross-validation (CV) is a popular method for model-selection. Unfortunately, it is not immediately obvious how to apply CV to unsupervised or exploratory contexts. This thesis discusses some extensions of cross-validation to unsupervised…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-17 Patrick O. Perry

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Bror Hultberg , Dave Zachariah , Antônio H. Ribeiro

Cross-validation (CV) is a widely-used method of predictive assessment based on repeated model fits to different subsets of the available data. CV is applicable in a wide range of statistical settings. However, in cases where data are not…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-23 Alex Cooper , Aki Vehtari , Catherine Forbes

Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used to analyze spatially referenced data and to predict values at locations without observations. In contrast to many algorithmic procedures, GP models are based on a statistical framework, which…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-01 Florian Gerber , Douglas W. Nychka

Cross validation residuals are well known for the ordinary least squares model. Here leave-M-out cross validation is extended to generalised least squares. The relationship between cross validation residuals and Cook's distance is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-06 Ingrid Annette Baade

We introduce a new cross-validation method based on an equicorrelated Gaussian randomization scheme. Our method is well-suited for problems where sample splitting is infeasible, either because the data violate the assumption of independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Sifan Liu , Snigdha Panigrahi , Jake A. Soloff

In this paper, we develop an implementation of cross-validation for penalized linear mixed models. While these models have been proposed for correlated high-dimensional data, the current literature implicitly assumes that tuning parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-19 Tabitha K. Peter , Patrick J. Breheny

Cross-validation is a standard tool for obtaining a honest assessment of the performance of a prediction model. The commonly used version repeatedly splits data, trains the prediction model on the training set, evaluates the model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-10 Tianyu Pan , Vincent Z. Yu , Viswanath Devanarayan , Lu Tian

In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for subagged estimators, both for classification and regressor. General loss functions and class of predictors with both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-11-24 Matthieu CORNEC

Generalized cross-validation (GCV) is a widely-used method for estimating the squared out-of-sample prediction risk that employs a scalar degrees of freedom adjustment (in a multiplicative sense) to the squared training error. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-23 Pierre C. Bellec , Jin-Hong Du , Takuya Koriyama , Pratik Patil , Kai Tan

Cross-validation is the standard approach for tuning parameter selection in many non-parametric regression problems. However its use is less common in change-point regression, perhaps as its prediction error-based criterion may appear to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 Florian Pein , Rajen D. Shah

Cross-validation is frequently used for model selection in a variety of applications. However, it is difficult to apply cross-validation to mixed effects models (including nonlinear mixed effects models or NLME models) due to the fact that…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-24 Emily Colby , Eric Bair

In the field of modeling, the word validation refers to simple comparisons between model outputs and experimental data. Usually, this comparison constitutes plotting the model results against data on the same axes to provide a visual…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-11 Farid Mohammadi

We investigate generically applicable and intuitively appealing prediction intervals based on $k$-fold cross validation. We focus on the conditional coverage probability of the proposed intervals, given the observations in the training…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-13 Lukas Steinberger , Hannes Leeb

Given a high-dimensional covariate matrix and a response vector, ridge-regularized sparse linear regression selects a subset of features that explains the relationship between covariates and the response in an interpretable manner. To…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-13 Ryan Cory-Wright , Andrés Gómez

We construct and propose the "Bayesian Validation Metric" (BVM) as a general model validation and testing tool. We find the BVM to be capable of representing all of the standard validation metrics (square error, reliability, probability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-28 Kevin Vanslette , Tony Tohme , Kamal Youcef-Toumi