Related papers: Nested sampling statistical errors
Nested sampling has emerged as a valuable tool for Bayesian analysis, in particular for determining the Bayesian evidence. The method is based on a specific type of random sampling of the likelihood function and prior volume of the…
Nested Sampling is a method for computing the Bayesian evidence, also called the marginal likelihood, which is the integral of the likelihood with respect to the prior. More generally, it is a numerical probabilistic quadrature rule. The…
Nested sampling (NS) is a stochastic method for computing the log-evidence of a Bayesian problem. It relies on stochastic estimates of prior volumes enclosed by likelihood contours, which limits the accuracy of the log-evidence calculation.…
We review Skilling's nested sampling (NS) algorithm for Bayesian inference and more broadly multi-dimensional integration. After recapitulating the principles of NS, we survey developments in implementing efficient NS algorithms in practice…
Nested sampling (NS) computes parameter posterior distributions and makes Bayesian model comparison computationally feasible. Its strengths are the unsupervised navigation of complex, potentially multi-modal posteriors until a well-defined…
Sampling errors in nested sampling parameter estimation differ from those in Bayesian evidence calculation, but have been little studied in the literature. This paper provides the first explanation of the two main sources of sampling errors…
Nested sampling is a simulation method for approximating marginal likelihoods proposed by Skilling (2006). We establish that nested sampling has an approximation error that vanishes at the standard Monte Carlo rate and that this error is…
Nested sampling is a powerful approach to Bayesian inference ultimately limited by the computationally demanding task of sampling from a heavily constrained probability distribution. An effective algorithm in its own right, Hamiltonian…
Bayesian inference involves two main computational challenges. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the posterior distribution may well be highly multi-modal: a regime in which the convergence to stationarity of…
Nested sampling (NS) is an invaluable tool in data analysis in modern astrophysics, cosmology, gravitational wave astronomy and particle physics. We identify a previously unused property of NS related to order statistics: the insertion…
Bayesian inference methods rely on numerical algorithms for both model selection and parameter inference. In general, these algorithms require a high computational effort to yield reliable estimates. One of the major challenges in…
Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…
Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…
Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…
Nested sampling is an iterative integration procedure that shrinks the prior volume towards higher likelihoods by removing a "live" point at a time. A replacement point is drawn uniformly from the prior above an ever-increasing likelihood…
Nested sampling is a promising tool for Bayesian statistical analysis because it simultaneously performs parameter estimation and facilitates model comparison. MultiNest is one of the most popular nested sampling implementations, and has…
It was recently emphasised by Riley (2019); Schittenhelm & Wacker (2020) that that in the presence of plateaus in the likelihood function nested sampling (NS) produces faulty estimates of the evidence and posterior densities. After…
The nested distance builds on the Wasserstein distance to quantify the difference of stochastic processes, including also the information modelled by filtrations. The Sinkhorn divergence is a relaxation of the Wasserstein distance, which…
We introduce a novel technique within the Nested Sampling framework to enhance efficiency of the computation of Bayesian evidence, a critical component in scientific data analysis. In higher dimensions, Nested Sampling relies on Markov…
The Shannon entropy, and related quantities such as mutual information, can be used to quantify uncertainty and relevance. However, in practice, it can be difficult to compute these quantities for arbitrary probability distributions,…