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To ensure reliable operation of power grids, their frequency shall stay within strict bounds. Multiple sources of disturbances cause fluctuations of the grid frequency, ranging from changing demand over volatile feed-in to energy trading.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-29 Benjamin Schäfer , Marc Timme , Dirk Witthaut

The interdependence of electricity and natural gas markets is becoming a major topic in energy research. Integrated energy models are used to assist decision-making for businesses and policymakers addressing challenges of energy transition…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-11 Iegor Riepin , Thomas Möbius , Felix Müsgens

The accurate prediction of short-term electricity prices is vital for effective trading strategies, power plant scheduling, profit maximisation and efficient system operation. However, uncertainties in supply and demand make such…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-20 Mira Watermeyer , Thomas Möbius , Oliver Grothe , Felix Müsgens

We consider a sequential decision making process, such as renewable energy trading or electrical production scheduling, whose outcome depends on the future realization of a random factor, such as a meteorological variable. We assume that…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-01 Peter Tankov , Laura Tinsi

Complex network analyses have provided clues to improve power-grid stability with the help of numerical models. The high computational cost of numerical simulations, however, has inhibited the approach, especially when it deals with the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-01-12 Seong-Gyu Yang , Beom Jun Kim , Seung-Woo Son , Heetae Kim

Networked dynamical systems are common throughout science in engineering; e.g., biological networks, reaction networks, power systems, and the like. For many such systems, nonlinearity drives populations of identical (or near-identical)…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-02-10 James Koch , Zhao Chen , Aaron Tuor , Jan Drgona , Draguna Vrabie

Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable due to their dependence on meteorological conditions.…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-05 Thordis Thorarinsdottir , Anders Løland , Alex Lenkoski

Many data-driven modules in smart grid rely on access to high-quality power flow data; however, real-world data are often limited due to privacy and operational constraints. This paper presents a physics-informed generative framework based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Junfei Wang , Darshana Upadhyay , Marzia Zaman , Pirathayini Srikantha

Due to the penetration of renewable energy resources and load deviation, uncertainty handling is one of the main challenges for power system; therefore the need for accurate decision-making in a power system under the penetration of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-26 Mohammad Hemmati , Behnam Mohammadi-Ivatloo , Alireza Soroudi

Power grid frequency stability is fundamental to the secure operation of modern energy systems, yet the growing penetration of renewables and the associated reduction of system inertia have made frequency fluctuations increasingly…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-05-14 Wanru Hao , Alessandro Lonardi , Christian Beck

Modern wind turbines gather a wealth of data with Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. We study the short-term mutual dependencies of a variety of observables by evaluating Pearson correlation matrices on a moving time…

Fluctuating wind energy makes a stable grid operation challenging. Due to the direct contact with atmospheric turbulence, intermittent short-term variations in the wind speed are converted to power fluctuations that cause transient…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-03-29 Hauke Haehne , Jannik Schottler , Matthias Waechter , Joachim Peinke , Oliver Kamps

Macroscopic traffic flow is stochastic, but the physics-informed deep learning methods currently used in transportation literature embed deterministic PDEs and produce point-valued outputs; the stochasticity of the governing dynamics plays…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-11 Wuping Xin

Network structures underlie the dynamics of many complex phenomena, from gene regulation and foodwebs to power grids and social media. Yet, as they often cannot be observed directly, their connectivities must be inferred from observations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Thomas Gaskin , Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Mark Girolami

The application of deep learning methods to speed up the resolution of challenging power flow problems has recently shown very encouraging results. However, power system dynamics are not snap-shot, steady-state operations. These dynamics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Mostafa Mohammadian , Kyri Baker , Ferdinando Fioretto

In this paper we present a discussion of the basic aspects of the well-known problem of prediction and inference in physics, with specific attention to the role of models, the use of data and the application of recent developments in…

General Physics · Physics 2024-10-07 Luca Gammaitoni , Angelo Vulpiani

During the last years, European intraday power markets have gained importance for balancing forecast errors due to the rising volumes of intermittent renewable generation. However, compared to day-ahead markets, the drivers for the intraday…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-10-06 Simon Hirsch , Florian Ziel

The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-17 Michela Moschella , Mauro Tucci , Emanuele Crisostomi , Alessandro Betti

When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-03-21 Juan V Escobar , Isaac Pérez Castillo

We study short-term prediction of wind speed and wind power (every 10 minutes up to 4 hours ahead). Accurate forecasts for these quantities are crucial to mitigate the negative effects of wind farms' intermittent production on energy…