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We present a numerical method for learning unknown nonautonomous stochastic dynamical system, i.e., stochastic system subject to time dependent excitation or control signals. Our basic assumption is that the governing equations for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yuan Chen , Dongbin Xiu

Minimizing both power fluctuations and energy waste in an electrical grid is a central challenge to energy policy. Any discrepancy between power production and loads may lead to inefficiencies and instability in the system. Right now, the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-20 H. Grebel

While electric power grids play a key role in the decarbonization of society, it remains unclear how recent trends, such as the strong integration of renewable energies, can affect their stability. Power oscillation modes, which are key to…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2024-08-28 Pierrick Guichard , Nicolas Retière , Didier Mayou

The dynamics of power-grid networks is becoming an increasingly active area of research within the physics and network science communities. The results from such studies are typically insightful and illustrative, but are often based on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-09-24 Takashi Nishikawa , Adilson E. Motter

Wind and solar power are known to be highly influenced by weather events and may ramp up or down abruptly. Such events in the power production influence not only the availability of energy, but also the stability of the entire power grid.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-07-20 M. Anvari , G. Lohmann , M. Wächter , P. Milan , E. Lorenz , D. Heinemann , M. Reza Rahimi Tabar , Joachim Peinke

Time series forecasting remains a central challenge problem in almost all scientific disciplines. We introduce a novel load forecasting method in which observed dynamics are modeled as a forced linear system using Dynamic Mode Decomposition…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-07-13 Daniel Dylewsky , David Barajas-Solano , Tong Ma , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky , J. Nathan Kutz

In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-30 Jens Schreiber , Bernhard Sick

The ever-growing use of wind energy makes necessary the optimization of turbine operations through pitch angle controllers and their maintenance with early fault detection. It is crucial to have accurate and robust models imitating the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-28 Alfonso Gijón , Ainhoa Pujana-Goitia , Eugenio Perea , Miguel Molina-Solana , Juan Gómez-Romero

The power grid frequency is the central observable in power system control, as it measures the balance of electrical supply and demand. A reliable frequency forecast can facilitate rapid control actions and may thus greatly improve power…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-08-24 Johannes Kruse , Benjamin Schäfer , Dirk Witthaut

Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-06 Monika Zimmermann , Florian Ziel

Multiple types of fluctuations impact the collective dynamics of power grids and thus challenge their robust operation. Fluctuations result from processes as different as dynamically changing demands, energy trading, and an increasing share…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-07-24 Benjamin Schäfer , Christian Beck , Kazuyuki Aihara , Dirk Witthaut , Marc Timme

Long-span bridges are subjected to a multitude of dynamic excitations during their lifespan. To account for their effects on the structural system, several load models are used during design to simulate the conditions the structure is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Gledson Rodrigo Tondo , Igor Kavrakov , Guido Morgenthal

The electrical energy system has attracted much attention from an increasingly diverse research community. Many theoretical predictions have been made, from scaling laws of fluctuations to propagation velocities of disturbances. However, to…

This paper addresses the problem of predicting a wind farm's power generation when no or few statistical data is available. The study is based on a time-series wind speed model and on a simple dynamic model of a DFIG wind turbine including…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-18 Herman Bayem , Yannick Phulpin , Philippe Dessante , Julien Bect

Power grids are one of the most important components of infrastructure in today's world. Every nation is dependent on the security and stability of its own power grid to provide electricity to the households and industries. A malfunction of…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-11-13 Biswarup Bhattacharya , Abhishek Sinha

The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-05 Michael Ghil , Valerio Lucarini

Power systems are subject to fundamental changes due to the increasing infeed of decentralised renewable energy sources and storage. The decentralised nature of the new actors in the system requires new concepts for structuring the power…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2020-04-22 Lia Strenge , Paul Schultz , Jürgen Kurths , Jörg Raisch , Frank Hellmann

In this paper, the variable wind power is incorporated into the dynamic model for long-term stability analysis. A theory-based method is proposed for power systems with wind power to conduct long-term stability analysis, which is able to…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-11-15 Xiaozhe Wang , Hsiao-Dong Chiang , Jianhui Wang , Hui Liu , Tao Wang

Predicting the future behaviour of complex systems exhibiting critical-like dynamics is often considered to be an intrinsically hard task. Here, we study the predictability of the depinning dynamics of elastic interfaces in random media…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-02-03 Valtteri Haavisto , Marcin Mińkowski , Lasse Laurson

This research focuses on the evolving dynamics of the power grid, where traditional synchronous generators are being replaced by non-synchronous power electronic converter (PEC)-interfaced renewable energy sources. The non-linear dynamics…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-01 Sunil Subedi , Bidur Poudel , Pooja Aslami , Robert Fourney , Hossein Moradi Rekabdarkolaee , Reinaldo Tonkoski , Timothy M. Hansen