English
Related papers

Related papers: Heavy-Tailed NGG Mixture Models

200 papers

In this paper, we show how the sampling properties of the Hurst exponent methods of estimation change with the presence of heavy tails. We run extensive Monte Carlo simulations to find out how rescaled range analysis (R/S), multifractal…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-01-24 Jozef Barunik , Ladislav Kristoufek

Understanding the generalization properties of heavy-tailed stochastic optimization algorithms has attracted increasing attention over the past years. While illuminating interesting aspects of stochastic optimizers by using heavy-tailed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-03 Benjamin Dupuis , Umut Şimşekli

This work introduces a novel probabilistic deep learning technique called deep Gaussian mixture ensembles (DGMEs), which enables accurate quantification of both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. By assuming the data generating process…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-13 Yousef El-Laham , Niccolò Dalmasso , Elizabeth Fons , Svitlana Vyetrenko

Within Bayesian nonparametrics, dependent Dirichlet process mixture models provide a highly flexible approach for conducting inference about the conditional density function. However, several formulations of this class make either rather…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 María Xosé Rodríguez-Álvarez , Vanda Inácio , Nadja Klein

In this paper, we will give a sufficient condition for a non-negative random variable $X$ to be heavy tailed by investigating the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the probability distribution function. We focus on the relation between the…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-02 Kenji Nakagawa

The notion of expectiles, originally introduced in the context of testing for homoscedasticity and conditional symmetry of the error distribution in linear regression, induces a law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure that has…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-20 Simone A. Padoan , Gilles Stupfler

Since the turn of the century, there has been increased interest in the application of heavy-tailed distributions, particularly stable distributions, to problems in physics and finance. Although, the tails of stable distributions provide a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-08 Lev B. Klebanov , Lenka Slámová

We propose a novel complex-analytic method for sums of i.i.d. random variables that are heavy-tailed and integer-valued. The method combines singularity analysis, Lindel\"of integrals, and bivariate saddle points. As an application, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-13 Nicholas M. Ercolani , Sabine Jansen , Daniel Ueltschi

We study the asymptotic spectral distribution of the conjugate kernel random matrix $YY^\top$, where $Y= f(WX)$ arises from a two-layer neural network model. We consider the setting where $W$ and $X$ are random rectangular matrices with…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-07 Alice Guionnet , Vanessa Piccolo

Economically responsible mitigation of multivariate extreme risks-such as extreme rainfall over large areas, large simultaneous variations in many stock prices, or widespread breakdowns in transportation systems-requires assessing the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Stéphane Lhaut , Holger Rootzén , Johan Segers

Considerable literature has been devoted to developing statistical inferential results for risk measures, especially for those that are of the form of L-functionals. However, practical and theoretical considerations have highlighted quite a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-31 Abdelhakim Necir , Ričardas Zitikis

Modelling excesses over a high threshold using the Pareto or generalized Pareto distribution (PD/GPD) is the most popular approach in extreme value statistics. This method typically requires high thresholds in order for the (G)PD to fit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-13 Jan Beirlant , Elisabeth Joossens , Johan Segers

Score-based model research in the last few years has produced state of the art generative models by employing Gaussian denoising score-matching (DSM). However, the Gaussian noise assumption has several high-dimensional limitations,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-13 Jacob Deasy , Nikola Simidjievski , Pietro Liò

We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Jonas F. Frederiksen , Muneya Matsui , Rasmus S. Pedersen

Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy tail behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-08-27 Gang Cheng , Sicong Wang , Yuhong Yang

This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-20 Ayush Jha , Abootaleb Shirvani , Ali Jaffri , Svetlozar T. Rachev , Frank J. Fabozzi

Recent studies have shown that heavy tails can emerge in stochastic optimization and that the heaviness of the tails have links to the generalization error. While these studies have shed light on interesting aspects of the generalization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-14 Anant Raj , Melih Barsbey , Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Lingjiong Zhu , Umut Şimşekli

Many complex networks in natural and social phenomena have often been characterized by heavy-tailed degree distributions. However, due to rapidly growing size of network data and concerns on privacy issues about using these data, it becomes…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-19 Young-Ho Eom , Hang-Hyun Jo

Standard generative models struggle with heavy-tailed data: Lipschitz architectures cannot produce power-law tails from Gaussian noise, and interpolating between heavy-tailed data and Gaussians is ill-posed. We propose a simple fix: apply…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-20 Jean Pachebat

Gradient compression has surfaced as a key technique to address the challenge of communication efficiency in distributed learning. In distributed deep learning, however, it is observed that gradient distributions are heavy-tailed, with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Guangfeng Yan , Tan Li , Yuanzhang Xiao , Hanxu Hou , Linqi Song