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The linear fractional stable motion (LFSM) extends the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) by considering $\alpha$-stable increments. We propose a method to forecast future increments of the LFSM from past discrete-time observations, using the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Matthieu Garcin , Karl Sawaya , Thomas Valade

The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-11 Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models provide elegant methods for discovering underlying latent features within a data set, but inference in such models can be slow. We exploit the fact that completely random measures, which commonly used…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-17 Avinava Dubey , Michael Minyi Zhang , Eric P. Xing , Sinead A. Williamson

We investigate a stochastic version of the synthetic multicellular clock model proposed by Garcia-Ojalvo, Elowitz and Strogatz. By introducing dynamical noise in the model and assuming that the partial observations of the system can be…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-15 Inés P. Mariño , Joaquin Miguez , Alexey Zaikin

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

We derive fractional Brownian motion and stochastic processes with multifractal properties using a framework of network of Gaussian conditional probabilities. This leads to the derivation of new representations of fractional Brownian…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-02-03 Benoît Descamps

Factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs) are powerful tools of modeling sequential data. Learning FHMMs yields a challenging simultaneous model selection issue, i.e., selecting the number of multiple Markov chains and the dimensionality of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-29 Shaohua Li , Ryohei Fujimaki , Chunyan Miao

We describe a Bayesian framework for estimating the time-domain noise covariance of CMB observations, typically parametrized in terms of a 1/f frequency profile. This framework is based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm, which allows for…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-30 I. K. Wehus , S. K. Næss , H. K. Eriksen

Parameter inference of dynamical systems is a challenging task faced by many researchers and practitioners across various fields. In many applications, it is common that only limited variables are observable. In this paper, we propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-01 Yu Chen , Jin Cheng , Arvind Gupta , Huaxiong Huang , Shixin Xu

A new extension of the sub-fractional Brownian motion, and thus of the Brownian motion, is introduced. It is a linear combination of a finite number of sub-fractional Brownian motions, that we have chosen to call the mixed sub-fractional…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-13 Mounir Zili

Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-03 Johan Alenlöv , Arnaud Doucet , Fredrik Lindsten

High-throughput characterization often requires estimating parameters and model dimension from experimental data of limited quantity and quality. Such data may result in an ill-posed inverse problem, where multiple sets of parameters and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-08 Abigail N. Poteshman , Jiwon Yun , Tim H. Taminiau , Giulia Galli

While Bayesian methods are extremely popular in statistics and machine learning, their application to massive datasets is often challenging, when possible at all. Indeed, the classical MCMC algorithms are prohibitively slow when both the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-23 Pierre Alquier , James Ridgway

A Bayesian approach to the classification problem is proposed in which random partitions play a central role. It is argued that the partitioning approach has the capacity to take advantage of a variety of large-scale spatial structures, if…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marc A. Coram

Data-informed predictive maintenance planning largely relies on stochastic deterioration models. Monitoring information can be utilized to update sequentially the knowledge on time-invariant deterioration model parameters either within an…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-02 Antonios Kamariotis , Luca Sardi , Iason Papaioannou , Eleni Chatzi , Daniel Straub

This paper deals with asymptotic errors, limit theorems for errors between numerical and exact solutions of stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by one-dimensional fractional Brownian motion (fBm). The Euler-Maruyama, higher-order…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Kento Ueda

Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complicated stochastic models for which the likelihood function is difficult or even impossible to calculate, and hence conventional likelihood-based inferential echniques cannot be…

Computation · Statistics 2013-05-29 Simon R. White , Theodore Kypraios , Simon P. Preston

Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-30 Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer

This paper presents a comparative study of two Bayesian approaches - Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) - for estimating the parameters of autoregressive fractionally-integrated moving average…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-18 James Cohen Gabor , Clara Grazian

Fractional Brownian motion (fBm) is an experimentally-relevant, non-Markovian Gaussian stochastic process with long-ranged correlations between the increments, parametrised by the so-called Hurst exponent $H$; depending on its value the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-10-04 O. Benichou , G. Oshanin