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Proper econometric analysis should be informed by data structure. Many forms of financial data are recorded in discrete-time and relate to products of a finite term. If the data comes from a financial trust, it will often be further subject…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-24 Jackson P. Lautier , Vladimir Pozdnyakov , Jun Yan

This paper introduces a new algorithm for numerically computing equilibrium (i.e. stationary) distributions for Markov chains and Markov jump processes with either a very large finite state space or a countably infinite state space. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-31 Alex Infanger , Peter W. Glynn

We study the problem of computing the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of multivariate log-concave densities. Our main result is the first computationally efficient algorithm for this problem. In more detail, we give an algorithm that, on…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-12-14 Ilias Diakonikolas , Anastasios Sidiropoulos , Alistair Stewart

We consider estimating an expected infinite-horizon cumulative discounted cost/reward contingent on an underlying stochastic process by Monte Carlo simulation. An unbiased estimator based on truncating the cumulative cost at a random…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-05-26 Zhenyu Cui , Michael C. Fu , Yijie Peng , Lingjiong Zhu

We consider the problem of estimating functionals of discrete distributions, and focus on tight nonasymptotic analysis of the worst case squared error risk of widely used estimators. We apply concentration inequalities to analyze the random…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-11 Jiantao Jiao , Kartik Venkat , Yanjun Han , Tsachy Weissman

Protesting mildly against the notion of an exactly correct parametric model the view is adopted that the logistic regression equation is merely an approximation to the underlying, true function. The behaviour of likelihood based estimators…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Nils Lid Hjort

We consider the branch-length estimation problem on a bifurcating tree: a character evolves along the edges of a binary tree according to a two-state symmetric Markov process, and we seek to recover the edge transition probabilities from…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-30 David Clancy , Hanbaek Lyu , Sebastien Roch

This article considers stochastic algorithms for efficiently solving a class of large scale non-linear least squares (NLS) problems which frequently arise in applications. We propose eight variants of a practical randomized algorithm where…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-01-27 Farbod Roosta-Khorasani , Gábor J. Székely , Uri Ascher

A non trivial problem that arises in several applications is the estimation of the mean of a truncated normal distribution. In this paper, an iterative deterministic scheme for approximating this mean is proposed. It has been inspired from…

This paper addresses two central problems for probabilistic processing models: parameter estimation from incomplete data and efficient retrieval of most probable analyses. These questions have been answered satisfactorily only for…

cmp-lg · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Stefan Riezler

Standard variational lower bounds used to train latent variable models produce biased estimates of most quantities of interest. We introduce an unbiased estimator of the log marginal likelihood and its gradients for latent variable models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yucen Luo , Alex Beatson , Mohammad Norouzi , Jun Zhu , David Duvenaud , Ryan P. Adams , Ricky T. Q. Chen

The truncated plurigaussian model is often used to simulate the spatial distribution of random categorical variables such as geological facies. The problems addressed in this paper are the estimation of parameters of the truncation map for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-07 Alina Astrakova , Dean S. Oliver , Christian Lantuéjoul

We describe a Monte Carlo method to approximate the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), when there are missing data and the observed data likelihood is not available in closed form. This method uses simulated missing data that are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-22 Yun Ju Sung , Charles J. Geyer

The initial mass function for the stars is often modeled by a lognormal distribution. This paper is devoted to demonstrating the advantage of introducing a left and right truncated lognormal probability density function, which is…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-08-22 L. Zaninetti

Let X_1, ..., X_n be independent and identically distributed random vectors with a log-concave (Lebesgue) density f. We first prove that, with probability one, there exists a unique maximum likelihood estimator of f. The use of this…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-04-25 Madeleine Cule , Richard Samworth , Michael Stewart

Maximum likelihood estimation is one of the most used methods in quantum state tomography, where the aim is to reconstruct the density matrix of a physical system from measurement results. One strategy to deal with positivity and unit trace…

In this work, we consider a manufactory process which can be described by a multiple-instance logistic regression model. In order to compute the maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown coefficient, an expectation-maximization algorithm…

We present an approximated maximum likelihood method for the multifractal random walk processes of [E. Bacry et al., Phys. Rev. E 64, 026103 (2001)]. The likelihood is computed using a Laplace approximation and a truncation in the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-03 Ola Løvsletten , Martin Rypdal

In many complex statistical models maximum likelihood estimators cannot be calculated. In the paper we solve this problem using Markov chain Monte Carlo approximation of the true likelihood. In the main result we prove asymptotic normality…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-09 Błażej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , Wojciech Rejchel

For the tree topology, previous studies show the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of a link/path takes a polynomial form with a degree that is one less than the number of descendants connected to the link/path. Since then, the main concern…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2010-04-28 Weiping Zhu