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Difference-in-differences (DID) is one of the most popular tools used to evaluate causal effects of policy interventions. This paper extends the DID methodology to accommodate interval outcomes, which are often encountered in empirical…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-10 Daisuke Kurisu , Yuta Okamoto , Taisuke Otsu

We address the problem of identifiability of an arbitrary conditional causal effect given both the causal graph and a set of any observational and/or interventional distributions of the form $Q[S]:=P(S|do(V\setminus S))$, where $V$ denotes…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Yaroslav Kivva , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

AI-driven outcomes can be challenging for end-users to understand. Explanations can address two key questions: "Why this outcome?" (factual) and "Why not another?" (counterfactual). While substantial efforts have been made to formalize…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-21 Suryani Lim , Henri Prade , Gilles Richard

Despite their strong performance on reasoning benchmarks, large language models (LLMs) have proven brittle when presented with counterfactual questions, suggesting weaknesses in their causal reasoning ability. While recent work has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Victoria Lin , Xinnuo Xu , Rachel Lawrence , Risa Ueno , Amit Sharma , Javier Gonzalez , Niranjani Prasad

It is often said that the fundamental problem of causal inference is a missing data problem -- the comparison of responses to two hypothetical treatment assignments is made difficult because for every experimental unit only one potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-21 Razieh Nabi , Rohit Bhattacharya , Ilya Shpitser , James M. Robins

We consider the task of causal imputation, where we aim to predict the outcomes of some set of actions across a wide range of possible contexts. As a running example, we consider predicting how different drugs affect cells from different…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-19 Alvaro Ribot , Chandler Squires , Caroline Uhler

The goal of algorithmic recourse is to reverse unfavorable decisions (e.g., from loan denial to approval) under automated decision making by suggesting actionable feature changes (e.g., reduce the number of credit cards). To generate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-07 Martin Pawelczyk , Lea Tiyavorabun , Gjergji Kasneci

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-12 Ngoc Bui , Duy Nguyen , Viet Anh Nguyen

Counterfactual (CF) explanations have been employed as one of the modes of explainability in explainable AI-both to increase the transparency of AI systems and to provide recourse. Cognitive science and psychology, however, have pointed out…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-12-14 Marko Tesic , Ulrike Hahn

Counterfactual explanations constitute among the most popular methods for analyzing black-box systems since they can recommend cost-efficient and actionable changes to the input of a system to obtain the desired system output. While most of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 André Artelt , Andreas Gregoriades

Causal discovery, i.e., learning the causal graph from data, is often the first step toward the identification and estimation of causal effects, a key requirement in numerous scientific domains. Causal discovery is hampered by two main…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Ehsan Mokhtarian , Sepehr Elahi , Sina Akbari , Negar Kiyavash

Composed Image Retrieval (CIR) aims to retrieve a target image based on a query composed of a reference image, and a relative caption that specifies the desired modification. Despite the rapid development of CIR models, their performance is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Yikun Liu , Jiangchao Yao , Weidi Xie , Yanfeng Wang

Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-13 Amanda Coston , Alan Mishler , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova

Counterfactual thinking describes a psychological phenomenon that people re-infer the possible results with different solutions about things that have already happened. It helps people to gain more experience from mistakes and thus to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-19 Yue Wang , Yao Wan , Chenwei Zhang , Lixin Cui , Lu Bai , Philip S. Yu

The wide adoption of AI decision-making systems in critical domains such as criminal justice, loan approval, and hiring processes has heightened concerns about algorithmic fairness. As we often only have access to the output of algorithms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Saeyoung Rho , Junzhe Zhang , Elias Bareinboim

Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) is a particular form of factor analysis, most commonly used in social research. In confirmatory factor analysis, the researcher first develops a hypothesis about what factors they believe are underlying…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-15 Rui Portocarrero Sarmento , Vera Costa

Our evolution as a species made a huge step forward when we understood the relationships between causes and effects. These associations may be trivial for some events, but they are not in complex scenarios. To rigorously prove that some…

Mathematical Software · Computer Science 2021-07-13 Martí Pedemonte , Jordi Vitrià , Álvaro Parafita

There has been considerable recent interest in explainability in AI, especially with black-box machine learning models. As correctly observed by the planning community, when the application at hand is not a single-shot decision or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Vaishak Belle

This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system. Such predictions allow both humans and…

By providing explanations for users and system designers to facilitate better understanding and decision making, explainable recommendation has been an important research problem. In this paper, we propose Counterfactual Explainable…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Juntao Tan , Shuyuan Xu , Yingqiang Ge , Yunqi Li , Xu Chen , Yongfeng Zhang