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This study presents a novel framework for counterfactual user behavior forecasting that combines structural causal models with transformer-based generative artificial intelligence. To model fictitious situations, the method creates causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Dharmateja Priyadarshi Uddandarao , Ravi Kiran Vadlamani

In this paper we study the problem of making predictions using multiple structural casual models defined by different agents, under the constraint that the prediction satisfies the criterion of counterfactual fairness. Relying on the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-25 Fabio Massimo Zennaro , Magdalena Ivanovska

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms usually require a substantial amount of interaction data and perform well only for specific tasks in a fixed environment. In some scenarios such as healthcare, however, usually only few records are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-17 Chaochao Lu , Biwei Huang , Ke Wang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Kun Zhang , Bernhard Schölkopf

The ability to understand causality from data is one of the major milestones of human-level intelligence. Causal Discovery (CD) algorithms can identify the cause-effect relationships among the variables of a system from related…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Uzma Hasan , Emam Hossain , Md Osman Gani

Counterfactuals operationalised through algorithmic recourse have become a powerful tool to make artificial intelligence systems explainable. Conceptually, given an individual classified as y -- the factual -- we seek actions such that…

Of late, in order to have better acceptability among various domain, researchers have argued that machine intelligence algorithms must be able to provide explanations that humans can understand causally. This aspect, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-24 Satyam Kumar , Vadlamani Ravi

In eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), counterfactual explanations are known to give simple, short, and comprehensible justifications for complex model decisions. However, we are yet to see more applied studies in which they are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-18 Raphael Mazzine Barbosa de Oliveira , Sofie Goethals , Dieter Brughmans , David Martens

Being able to provide counterfactual interventions - sequences of actions we would have had to take for a desirable outcome to happen - is essential to explain how to change an unfavourable decision by a black-box machine learning model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Giovanni De Toni , Bruno Lepri , Andrea Passerini

There has been a recent resurgence of interest in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) that aims to reduce the opaqueness of AI-based decision-making systems, allowing humans to scrutinize and trust them. Prior work in this context has…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Sainyam Galhotra , Romila Pradhan , Babak Salimi

This paper tackles the problem of time-to-event counterfactual survival prediction, aiming to optimize individualized survival outcomes in the presence of heterogeneity and censored data. We propose CURE, a framework that advances…

This paper clarifies a fundamental difference between causal inference and traditional statistical inference by formalizing a mathematical distinction between their respective parameters. We connect two major approaches to causal inference,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Muye Liu , Jun Xie

When a model attribution technique highlights a particular part of the input, a user might understand this highlight as making a statement about counterfactuals (Miller, 2019): if that part of the input were to change, the model's…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-15 Xi Ye , Rohan Nair , Greg Durrett

It is commonly believed that, in a real-world environment, samples can only be drawn from observational and interventional distributions, corresponding to Layers 1 and 2 of the Pearl Causal Hierarchy. Layer 3, representing counterfactual…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Arvind Raghavan , Elias Bareinboim

Recommender systems are designed to learn user preferences from observed feedback and comprise many fundamental tasks, such as rating prediction and post-click conversion rate (pCVR) prediction. However, the observed feedback usually suffer…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-02-09 Jun Wang , Haoxuan Li , Chi Zhang , Dongxu Liang , Enyun Yu , Wenwu Ou , Wenjia Wang

We develop a general framework for the identification of counterfactual parameters in a class of nonlinear semiparametric panel models with fixed effects and time effects. Our method applies to models for discrete outcomes (e.g., two-way…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-07 Irene Botosaru , Chris Muris

Learning-based approaches, such as reinforcement and imitation learning are gaining popularity in decision-making for autonomous driving. However, learned policies often fail to generalize and cannot handle novel situations well. Asking and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-13 Patrick Hart , Alois Knoll

Machine learning can impact people with legal or ethical consequences when it is used to automate decisions in areas such as insurance, lending, hiring, and predictive policing. In many of these scenarios, previous decisions have been made…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Matt J. Kusner , Joshua R. Loftus , Chris Russell , Ricardo Silva

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) offer a human-understandable way to explain decisions by identifying specific changes to the input parameters of a base or present model that would lead to a desired change in the outcome. For optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Felix Engelhardt , Jannis Kurtz , Ş. İlker Birbil , Ted Ralphs

In this paper we present a comprehensive view of prominent causal discovery algorithms, categorized into two main categories (1) assuming acyclic and no latent variables, and (2) allowing both cycles and latent variables, along with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-09-13 Karamjit Singh , Garima Gupta , Vartika Tewari , Gautam Shroff

With the widespread accumulation of observational data, researchers obtain a new direction to learn counterfactual effects in many domains (e.g., health care and computational advertising) without Randomized Controlled Trials(RCTs).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu
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