Related papers: Data-Driven Quickest Change Detection in (Hidden) …
The problem of quickest change detection (QCD) in autoregressive (AR) models is investigated. A system is being monitored with sequentially observed samples. At some unknown time, a disturbance signal occurs and changes the distribution of…
We introduce the Reduced-Rank Hidden Markov Model (RR-HMM), a generalization of HMMs that can model smooth state evolution as in Linear Dynamical Systems (LDSs) as well as non-log-concave predictive distributions as in…
We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…
We investigate nonlinear regression for nonstationary sequential data. In most real-life applications such as business domains including finance, retail, energy and economy, timeseries data exhibits nonstationarity due to the temporally…
In this paper, we develop a new change detection algorithm for detecting a change in the Markov kernel over a metric space in which the post-change kernel is unknown. Under the assumption that the pre- and post-change Markov kernel is…
Modern Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) are limited in their ability to consider the drivers intention, resulting in unnatural guidance and low customer acceptance. In this research, we focus on a novel data-driven approach to…
We consider the problem of sequential detection of a change in the statistical behavior of a hidden Markov model. By adopting a worst-case analysis with respect to the time of change and by taking into account the data that can be accessed…
We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…
The problem of quickest change detection (QCD) under transient dynamics is studied, where the change from the initial distribution to the final persistent distribution does not happen instantaneously, but after a series of transient phases.…
In this paper, we study the quickest change detection with mismatched post-change models. A change point is the time instant at which the distribution of a random process changes. The objective of quickest change detection is to minimize…
Traditional hidden Markov models have been a useful tool to understand and model stochastic dynamic data; in the case of non-Gaussian data, models such as mixture of Gaussian hidden Markov models can be used. However, these suffer from the…
We consider the control of a Markov decision process (MDP) that undergoes an abrupt change in its transition kernel (mode). We formulate the problem of minimizing regret under control-switching based on mode change detection, compared to a…
Deep learning (DL) methods have outperformed parametric models such as historical average, ARIMA and variants in predicting traffic variables into short and near-short future, that are critical for traffic management. Specifically,…
This paper considers the quickest detection problem for hidden Markov models (HMMs) in a Bayesian setting. We construct an augmented HMM representation of the problem that allows the application of a dynamic programming approach to prove…
Recent attention in quickest change detection in the multi-sensor setting has been on the case where the densities of the observations change at the same instant at all the sensors due to the disruption. In this work, a more general…
We consider Markov models of stochastic processes where the next-step conditional distribution is defined by a kernel density estimator (KDE), similar to Markov forecast densities and certain time-series bootstrap schemes. The KDE Markov…
Lane determination and lane sequence determination are important components for many Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) applications. Lane determination has been solved using Hidden Markov Model (HMM) among other methods. The existing…
The detection of change-points in heterogeneous sequences is a statistical challenge with many applications in fields such as finance, signal analysis and biology. A wide variety of literature exists for finding an ideal set of…
Autonomous agents require the capability to identify dynamic objects in their environment for safe planning and navigation. Incomplete and erroneous dynamic detections jeopardize the agent's ability to accomplish its task. Dynamic detection…
A novel sequential change detection problem is proposed, in which the goal is to not only detect but also accelerate the change. Specifically, it is assumed that the sequentially collected observations are responses to treatments selected…