Related papers: CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface t…
Two future scenarios that are not explicitly in the range of scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios) utilised by the IPCC. These two scenarios are the emissions trend under peak fossil fuel (for example, Mohr et al.,…
Parameters in climate models are usually calibrated manually, exploiting only small subsets of the available data. This precludes both optimal calibration and quantification of uncertainties. Traditional Bayesian calibration methods that…
We present a systematic analysis of the intracluster medium (ICM) in an X-ray flux limited sample of 45 galaxy clusters. Using archival ROSAT PSPC data and published ICM temperatures, we present best fit double and single beta model…
While autoregressive machine-learning-based emulators have been trained to produce stable and accurate rollouts in the climate of the present-day and recent past, none so far have been trained to emulate the sensitivity of climate to…
The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such tipping can have significant climate impacts, it is important to understand the mechanisms at play…
Data assimilation procedures have been developed for thermospheric models using satellite density measurements as part of the EU Framework Package 7 ATMOP Project. Two models were studied; one a general circulation model, TIEGCM, and the…
Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is crucial for hydrometeorological risk management and disaster mitigation, yet remains challenging for current numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Traditional ensemble systems such as…
Global responses of the hydrological cycle to climate change have been widely studied but uncertainties of temperature responses to lower-tropospheric water vapor still remain. Here, we investigate the trends in global total precipitable…
With an increased focus on the observing and modelling of mini-Neptunes, there comes a need to better understand the tools we use to model their atmospheres. In this paper, we present the protocol for the CAMEMBERT (Comparing Atmospheric…
In this study, we investigate how PCMDI/CMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs) represent the seasonal properties of the hydrological cycle in four major South and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong). First,…
In Central Europe, the occurrence of different weather regimes (WRs) plays a major role in spatiotemporal temperature and precipitation patterns. In the context of increasingly extreme summers, this study focuses on European summer WRs…
Global climate projections rely on computationally demanding Earth System Models (ESMs), which are typically limited to coarse spatial resolutions due to their high cost. To obtain high-resolution projections for regions of interest, it is…
Accurate and high-resolution Earth system model (ESM) simulations are essential to assess the ecological and socio-economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are computationally too expensive to be run at sufficiently high…
Climate models simulate a strong land-ocean contrast in the response of near-surface relative humidity to global warming: relative humidity tends to increase slightly over oceans but decrease substantially over land. Surface energy balance…
AI-based weather and climate models are emerging as accurate and computationally efficient tools. Beyond weather forecasting, they also show promise to accelerate storyline analyses. We evaluate NeuralGCM's ability to simulate an extreme…
It has recently been proposed that Earth-like planets in the outer regions of the habitable zone experience unstable climates, repeatedly cycling between glaciated and deglaciated climatic states (Menou 2015). While this result has been…
West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM).Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation…
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized…
To analyze climate change mitigation strategies, economists rely on simplified climate models - climate emulators. We propose a generic and transparent calibration and evaluation strategy for these climate emulators that is based on Coupled…
Traditional numerical global climate models simulate the full Earth system by exchanging boundary conditions between separate simulators of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, and other geophysical processes. This paradigm allows…