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Conversion rate (CVR) prediction plays an important role in advertising systems. Recently, supervised deep neural network-based models have shown promising performance in CVR prediction. However, they are data hungry and require an enormous…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Wentao Ouyang , Rui Dong , Xiuwu Zhang , Chaofeng Guo , Jinmei Luo , Xiangzheng Liu , Yanlong Du

Conversion Rate (\emph{CVR}) prediction in modern industrial e-commerce platforms is becoming increasingly important, which directly contributes to the final revenue. In order to address the well-known sample selection bias (\emph{SSB}) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-21 Hong Wen , Jing Zhang , Fuyu Lv , Wentian Bao , Tianyi Wang , Zulong Chen

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) prediction is an essential task for discovering user interests and increasing platform revenues in a range of industrial applications. One of the most challenging problems of this task is the existence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-15 Quanyu Dai , Haoxuan Li , Peng Wu , Zhenhua Dong , Xiao-Hua Zhou , Rui Zhang , Rui zhang , Jie Sun

In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate (CVR), meaning the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, is a fundamental task for estimating the value of displaying an advertisement to a user.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-20 Yuta Saito , Gota Morishita , Shota Yasui

Position bias, the phenomenon whereby users tend to focus on higher-ranked items of the search result list regardless of the actual relevance to queries, is prevailing in many ranking systems. Position bias in training data biases the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Yibo Wang , Yanbing Xue , Bo Liu , Musen Wen , Wenting Zhao , Stephen Guo , Philip S. Yu

Unbiased CLTR requires click propensities to compensate for the difference between user clicks and true relevance of search results via IPS. Current propensity estimation methods assume that user click behavior follows the PBM and estimate…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-05-26 Ali Vardasbi , Maarten de Rijke , Ilya Markov

Click-through rate (CTR) and post-click conversion rate (CVR) predictions are two fundamental modules in industrial ranking systems such as recommender systems, advertising, and search engines. Since CVR involves much fewer samples than CTR…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-02-17 Xuanji Xiao , Huabin Chen , Yuzhen Liu , Xing Yao , Pei Liu , Chaosheng Fan , Nian Ji , Xirong Jiang

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction, crucial in applications like recommender systems and online advertising, involves ranking items based on the likelihood of user clicks. User behavior sequence modeling has marked progress in CTR…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Hengyu Zhang , Chang Meng , Wei Guo , Huifeng Guo , Jieming Zhu , Guangpeng Zhao , Ruiming Tang , Xiu Li

Implicit feedback (e.g., clicks, dwell times, etc.) is an abundant source of data in human-interactive systems. While implicit feedback has many advantages (e.g., it is inexpensive to collect, user centric, and timely), its inherent biases…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2016-08-17 Thorsten Joachims , Adith Swaminathan , Tobias Schnabel

The task of predicting conversion rates (CVR) lies at the heart of online advertising systems aiming to optimize bids to meet advertiser performance requirements. Even with the recent rise of deep neural networks, these predictions are…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-01-31 Alex Shtoff , Yohay Kaplan , Ariel Raviv

Existing recommendation algorithms mostly focus on optimizing traditional recommendation measures, such as the accuracy of rating prediction in terms of RMSE or the quality of top-$k$ recommendation lists in terms of precision, recall, MAP,…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2019-02-05 Changhua Pei , Xinru Yang , Qing Cui , Xiao Lin , Fei Sun , Peng Jiang , Wenwu Ou , Yongfeng Zhang

Ranking product recommendations to optimize for a high click-through rate (CTR) or for high conversion, such as add-to-cart rate (ACR) and Order-Submit-Rate (OSR, view-to-purchase conversion) are standard practices in e-commerce. Optimizing…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Michael Weiss , Robert Rosenbach , Christian Eggenberger

In industrial recommender systems, conversion rate (CVR) is widely used for traffic allocation, but it fails to fully reflect recommendation effectiveness because it ignores refund behavior. To better capture true user satisfaction and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Mingxuan Luo , Guipeng Xv , Sishuo Chen , Xinyu Li , Li Zhang , Zhangming Chan , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Han Zhu , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng , Chen Lin

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction is a crucial task in recommendation systems, online searches, and advertising platforms, where accurately capturing users' real interests in content is essential for performance. However, existing methods…

Recommender systems are designed to learn user preferences from observed feedback and comprise many fundamental tasks, such as rating prediction and post-click conversion rate (pCVR) prediction. However, the observed feedback usually suffer…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-02-09 Jun Wang , Haoxuan Li , Chi Zhang , Dongxu Liang , Enyun Yu , Wenwu Ou , Wenjia Wang

Implicit feedback (e.g., click, dwell time) is an attractive source of training data for Learning-to-Rank, but its naive use leads to learning results that are distorted by presentation bias. For the special case of optimizing average rank…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2019-08-28 Aman Agarwal , Kenta Takatsu , Ivan Zaitsev , Thorsten Joachims

Besides position bias, which has been well-studied, trust bias is another type of bias prevalent in user interactions with rankings: users are more likely to click incorrectly w.r.t. their preferences on highly ranked items because they…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Ali Vardasbi , Harrie Oosterhuis , Maarten de Rijke

User journeys in e-commerce routinely violate the one-to-one assumption that a clicked item on an advertising platform is the same item later purchased on the merchant's website/app. For a significant number of converting sessions on our…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Xiangyu Zeng , Amit Jaspal , Bin Liu , Goutham Panneeru , Kevin Huang , Nicolas Bievre , Mohit Jaggi , Prathap Maniraju , Ankur Jain

Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for achieving probabilistic guarantees on black-box models. CP is generally applied to a model post-training. Recent research efforts, on the other hand, have focused on optimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Sima Noorani , Orlando Romero , Nicolo Dal Fabbro , Hamed Hassani , George J. Pappas

Cross-validation (CV) is a popular approach for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, when the number of folds is large, CV suffers from a need to repeatedly refit a learning procedure on a large number of training datasets.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-12 Ashia Wilson , Maximilian Kasy , Lester Mackey