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Structural-equations models (SEMs) are perhaps the most commonly used framework for modeling causality. However, as we show, naively extending this framework to infinitely many variables, which is necessary, for example, to model dynamical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Spencer Peters , Joseph Y. Halpern

Causal modelling is a tool for generating causal explanations of observed correlations and has led to a deeper understanding of correlations in quantum networks. Existing frameworks for quantum causality tend to focus on acyclic causal…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-03-14 V. Vilasini , Roger Colbeck

This paper presents a framework for Quantum causal modeling based on the interpretation of causality as a relation between an observer's probability assignments to hypothetical or counterfactual experiments. The framework is based on the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-01-15 Jacques Pienaar

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Claiming causal inferences in network settings necessitates careful consideration of the often complex dependency between outcomes for actors. Of particular importance are treatment spillover or outcome interference effects. We consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Duncan A. Clark , Mark S. Handcock

This paper considers the problem of secure parameter estimation when the estimation algorithm is prone to causative attacks. Causative attacks, in principle, target decision-making algorithms to alter their decisions by making them…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-12-31 Saurabh Sihag , Ali Tajer

We present a general framework for studying regularized estimators; such estimators are pervasive in estimation problems wherein "plug-in" type estimators are either ill-defined or ill-behaved. Within this framework, we derive, under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-14 Michael Jansson , Demian Pouzo

We consider the problem of uncertainty assessment for low dimensional components in high dimensional models. Specifically, we propose a decorrelated score function to handle the impact of high dimensional nuisance parameters. We consider…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-01-22 Yang Ning , Han Liu

Recently there has been significant interest in using causal modelling techniques to understand the structure of physical theories. However, the notion of `causation' is limiting - insisting that a physical theory must involve causal…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2023-07-24 Mordecai Waegell , Kelvin J. McQueen , Emily C. Adlam

While much of the causal inference literature has focused on addressing internal validity biases, both internal and external validity are necessary for unbiased estimates in a target population of interest. However, few generalizability…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-07 Irina Degtiar , Tim Layton , Jacob Wallace , Sherri Rose

This paper presents a weighted optimization framework that unifies the binary,multi-valued, continuous, as well as mixture of discrete and continuous treatment, under the unconfounded treatment assignment. With a general loss function, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-08-20 Chunrong Ai , Oliver Linton , Kaiji Motegi , Zheng Zhang

While LLMs exhibit impressive fluency and factual recall, they struggle with robust causal reasoning, often relying on spurious correlations and brittle patterns. Similarly, traditional Reinforcement Learning agents also lack causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Abi Aryan , Zac Liu

Under a general structural equation framework for causal inference, we provide a definition of the causal effect of a variable X on another variable Y, and propose an approach to estimate this causal effect via the use of instrumental…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-26 Wing Hung Wong

Estimating causal effects from observational data informs us about which factors are important in an autonomous system, and enables us to take better decisions. This is important because it has applications in selecting a treatment in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Plabon Shaha , Talha Islam Zadid , Ismat Rahman , Md. Mosaddek Khan

A causal query will commonly not be identifiable from observed data, in which case no estimator of the query can be contrived without further assumptions or measured variables, regardless of the amount or precision of the measurements of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-09 Michael C Sachs , Gustav Jonzon , Arvid Sjölander , Erin E Gabriel

Structural assumptions are central to the causal inference literature. In practice, it is often crucial to assess their validity or to test implications that follow from them. In many settings, such tests can be framed as evaluating whether…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Rui Wang , Albert Osom , Bo Zhang

This paper provides a design-based framework for variance (bound) estimation in experimental analysis. Results are applicable to virtually any combination of experimental design, linear estimator (e.g., difference-in-means, OLS, WLS) and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-21 Joel A. Middleton

Instrumental variable methods are widely used for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders. Existing instrumental variable methods for nonlinear outcome models require stringent identifiability conditions. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-01 Sai Li , Zijian Guo

In this work, we present sequence-driven structural causal models (SD-SCMs), a framework for specifying causal models with user-defined structure and language-model-defined mechanisms. We characterize how an SD-SCM enables sampling from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Lucius E. J. Bynum , Kyunghyun Cho

A powerful tool for the analysis of nonrandomized observational studies has been the potential outcomes model. Utilization of this framework allows analysts to estimate average treatment effects. This article considers the situation in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-31 Debashis Ghosh , Efrén Cruz-Cortés