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We introduce a novel framework for causal explanations of stochastic, sequential decision-making systems built on the well-studied structural causal model paradigm for causal reasoning. This single framework can identify multiple,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-12 Samer B. Nashed , Saaduddin Mahmud , Claudia V. Goldman , Shlomo Zilberstein

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

Time-series experiments, also called switchback experiments or N-of-1 trials, play increasingly important roles in modern applications in medical and industrial areas. Under the potential outcomes framework, recent research has studied…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Zhexiao Lin , Peng Ding

We investigate the bounding problem of causal effects in experimental studies in which the outcome is truncated by death, meaning that the subject dies before the outcome can be measured. Causal effects cannot be point identified without…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-29 Aixian Chen , Xia Cui , Guangren Yang

Effect size measures and visualization techniques aimed at maximizing the interpretability and comparability of results from statistical models have long been of great importance and are recently again receiving increased attention in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-08 Hannah Kümpel , Sabine Hoffmann

Causal inference, as a major research area in statistics and data science, plays a central role across diverse fields such as medicine, economics, education, and the social sciences. Design-based causal inference begins with randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Xin Lu , Wanjia Fu , Hongzi Li , Haoyang Yu , Honghao Zhang , Ke Zhu , Hanzhong Liu

Causal inference studies whether the presence of a variable influences an observed outcome. As measured by quantities such as the "average treatment effect," this paradigm is employed across numerous biological fields, from vaccine and drug…

Most traditional models of uncertainty have focused on the associational relationship among variables as captured by conditional dependence. In order to successfully manage intelligent systems for decision making, however, we must be able…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 David Heckerman , Ross D. Shachter

Predicting the effect of interventions with many possible variations, e.g., therapeutic content that affects mental health outcomes or an earnings call transcript that drives movement in share price, is useful across several domains.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Nikita Dhawan , Arnav Paruthi , Andrew Kim , Lovedeep Gondara , Jekaterina Novikova , Chris J. Maddison

The creation of the ICH E9 (R1) estimands framework has led to more precise specification of the treatment effects of interest in the design and statistical analysis of clinical trials. However, it is unclear how the new framework relates…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-20 Thomas Drury , Jonathan W. Bartlett , David Wright , Oliver N. Keene

Case-control designs are an important tool in contrasting the effects of well-defined treatments. In this paper, we reconsider classical concepts, assumptions and principles and explore when the results of case-control studies can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-06 Bas B. L. Penning de Vries , Rolf H. H. Groenwold

Simulation studies play a key role in the validation of causal inference methods. The simulation results are reliable only if the study is designed according to the promised operational conditions of the method-in-test. Still, many causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-06 A. Zamanian , L. Mareis , N. Ahmidi

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

This paper provides robust estimators and efficient inference of causal effects involving multiple interacting mediators. Most existing works either impose a linear model assumption among the mediators or are restricted to handle…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-12 Haoyu Wei , Hengrui Cai , Chengchun Shi , Rui Song

In this work, we consider causal inference in various high-dimensional treatment settings, including for single multi-valued treatments and vector treatments with binary or continuous components, when the number of treatments can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Patrick Kramer , Edward H. Kennedy , Isaac M. Opper

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-05 Martin Emil Jakobsen

There has been widespread use of causal inference methods for the rigorous analysis of observational studies and to identify policy evaluations. In this article, we consider a class of generalized coarsened procedures for confounding. At a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-04 Debashis Ghosh , Lei Wang

Experiments deliver credible treatment-effect estimates but, because they are costly, are often restricted to specific sites, small populations, or particular mechanisms. A common practice across several fields is therefore to combine…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Aristotelis Epanomeritakis , Davide Viviano

Under the potential outcomes framework, we introduce matched-pair factorial designs, and propose the matched-pair estimator of the factorial effects. We also calculate the randomization-based covariance matrix of the matched-pair estimator,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-06 Jiannan Lu , Alex Deng

In this paper we review important aspects of semiparametric theory and empirical processes that arise in causal inference problems. We begin with a brief introduction to the general problem of causal inference, and go on to discuss…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-25 Edward H. Kennedy
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