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The average causal mediation effect (ACME) and the natural direct effect (NDE) are two parameters of primary interest in causal mediation analysis. However, the two causal parameters are not identifiable from randomized experimental data in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Wei Liang , Changbao Wu

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva

In many medical studies, an ultimate failure event such as death is likely to be affected by the occurrence and timing of other intermediate clinical events. Both event times are subject to censoring by loss-to-follow-up but the nonterminal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-18 Fei Gao , Fan Xia , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

Although treatment effects can be estimated from observed outcome distributions obtained from proper randomization in clinical trials, covariate adjustment is recommended to increase precision. For important treatment effects, such as odds…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Susanne Dandl , Torsten Hothorn

Flexible estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects lies at the heart of many statistical challenges, such as personalized medicine and optimal resource allocation. In this paper, we develop a general class of two-step algorithms for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Xinkun Nie , Stefan Wager

We study the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments with imperfect compliance. When participants do not adhere to their assigned treatments, we leverage treatment assignment as an instrumental variable to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Undral Byambadalai , Tomu Hirata , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui

In clinical studies, the risk of the primary (terminal) event may be modified by intermediate events, resulting in semicompeting risks. To study the treatment effect on the terminal event mediated by the intermediate event, researchers wish…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Yuhao Deng , Rui Wang , Tao Zhang , Xiang Zhan

We propose a test for the identification of causal effects in mediation and dynamic treatment models that is based on two sets of observed variables, namely covariates to be controlled for and suspected instruments, building on the test by…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-21 Martin Huber , Kevin Kloiber , Lukas Laffers

Wang and Tchetgen Tchetgen (2017) studied identification and estimation of the average treatment effect when some confounders are unmeasured. Under their identification condition, they showed that the semiparametric efficient influence…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-07-17 Chunrong Ai , Lukang Huang , Zheng Zhang

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmingly demonstrated the need to accurately evaluate the effects of implementing new or altering existing nonpharmaceutical interventions. Since these interventions applied at the societal level…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-27 Daniel K. Sewell , Aaron Miller

Decomposing a total causal effect into natural direct and indirect effects is central to revealing causal mechanisms. Conventional methods achieve the decomposition by specifying an outcome model as a linear function of the treatment, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-05 Guanglei Hong

A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-10 Lev V. Utkin , Mikhail V. Kots , Viacheslav S. Chukanov

It is often of interest to decompose a total effect of an exposure into the component that acts on the outcome through some mediator and the component that acts independently through other pathways. Said another way, we are interested in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-21 Peng Ding , Tyler J. VanderWeele

Modern causal decision-making increasingly demands individualized treatment-effect estimation in networks where interventions are high-dimensional, combinatorial vectors. While network interference, effect heterogeneity, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yunping Lu , Haoang Chi , Qirui Hu , Zhiheng Zhang

Mediation analysis aims at disentangling the effects of a treatment on an outcome through alternative causal mechanisms and has become a popular practice in biomedical and social science applications. The causal framework based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-27 Allan Jerolon , Laura Baglietto , Etienne Birmele , Vittorio Perduca , Flora Alarcon

Proximal causal inference was recently proposed as a framework to identify causal effects from observational data in the presence of hidden confounders for which proxies are available. In this paper, we extend the proximal causal inference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 AmirEmad Ghassami , Alan Yang , Ilya Shpitser , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Estimating causal effects of joint interventions on multiple variables is crucial in many domains, but obtaining data from such simultaneous interventions can be challenging. Our study explores how to learn joint interventional effects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-06 Armin Kekić , Sergio Hernan Garrido Mejia , Bernhard Schölkopf

Nonlinearity and endogeneity are prevalent challenges in causal analysis using observational data. This paper proposes an inference procedure for a nonlinear and endogenous marginal effect function, defined as the derivative of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-19 Qingliang Fan , Zijian Guo , Ziwei Mei , Cun-Hui Zhang

We propose a method for conducting asymptotically valid inference for treatment effects in a multi-valued treatment framework where the number of units in the treatment arms can be small and do not grow with the sample size. We accomplish…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-05-25 Marina Dias , Demian Pouzo

Long-term outcomes of experimental evaluations are necessarily observed after long delays. We develop semiparametric methods for combining the short-term outcomes of experiments with observational measurements of short-term and long-term…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-21 Jiafeng Chen , David M. Ritzwoller