English

Semiparametric Estimation of Long-Term Treatment Effects

Econometrics 2023-08-21 v5 Statistics Theory Statistics Theory

Abstract

Long-term outcomes of experimental evaluations are necessarily observed after long delays. We develop semiparametric methods for combining the short-term outcomes of experiments with observational measurements of short-term and long-term outcomes, in order to estimate long-term treatment effects. We characterize semiparametric efficiency bounds for various instances of this problem. These calculations facilitate the construction of several estimators. We analyze the finite-sample performance of these estimators with a simulation calibrated to data from an evaluation of the long-term effects of a poverty alleviation program.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2107.14405,
  title  = {Semiparametric Estimation of Long-Term Treatment Effects},
  author = {Jiafeng Chen and David M. Ritzwoller},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.14405},
  year   = {2023}
}