Related papers: Fast Estimation of Bayesian State Space Models Usi…
This paper proposes a probabilistic Bayesian formulation for system identification (ID) and estimation of nonseparable Hamiltonian systems using stochastic dynamic models. Nonseparable Hamiltonian systems arise in models from diverse…
We consider the problem of inferring latent stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with a time and memory cost that scales independently with the amount of data, the total length of the time series, and the stiffness of the approximate…
Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…
A generic algorithm for the extraction of probabilistic (Bayesian) information about model parameters from data is presented. The algorithm propagates an ensemble of particles in the product space of model parameters and outputs. Each…
Experiments in predator-prey systems show the emergence of long-term cycles. Deterministic model typically fails in capturing these behaviors, which emerge from the microscopic interplay of individual based dynamics and stochastic effects.…
One of the challenges in model-based control of stochastic dynamical systems is that the state transition dynamics are involved, and it is not easy or efficient to make good-quality predictions of the states. Moreover, there are not many…
We present an iterative framework to improve the amortized approximations of posterior distributions in the context of Bayesian inverse problems, which is inspired by loop-unrolled gradient descent methods and is theoretically grounded in…
We propose a nonparametric procedure to achieve fast inference in generative graphical models when the number of latent states is very large. The approach is based on iterative latent variable preselection, where we alternate between…
This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…
The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…
Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) with neural networks has emerged as a powerful simulation-based approach for estimating complex mechanistic models. However, extending ABI to hierarchical models, a cornerstone of modern Bayesian analysis,…
Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…
We present a scalable and robust Bayesian inference method for linear state space models. The method is applied to demand forecasting in the context of a large e-commerce platform, paying special attention to intermittent and bursty target…
Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…
In this paper, we propose a filtering algorithm for simultaneously estimating the mode, input and state of hidden mode switched linear stochastic systems with unknown inputs. Using a multiple-model approach with a bank of linear input and…
In this work, we address the problem of solving a series of underdetermined linear inverse problems subject to a sparsity constraint. We generalize the spike-and-slab prior distribution to encode a priori correlation of the support of the…
Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has…
Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) tempers a loss with a temperature $\beta > 0$ to mitigate overconfidence and improve robustness under model misspecification, but existing GBI methods typically rely on costly MCMC or SDE-based samplers…
A method for sequential Bayesian inference of the static parameters of a dynamic state space model is proposed. The method is based on the observation that many dynamic state space models have a relatively small number of static parameters…
Linear dynamical systems are canonical models for learning-based control of plants with uncertain dynamics. The setting consists of a stochastic differential equation that captures the state evolution of the plant understudy, while the true…