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The drift diffusion model (DDM) is a model of sequential sampling with diffusion (Brownian) signals, where the decision maker accumulates evidence until the process hits a stopping boundary, and then stops and chooses the alternative that…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-10-12 Drew Fudenberg , Whitney K. Newey , Philipp Strack , Tomasz Strzalecki

In this paper, we provide an explicit probability distribution for classification purposes. It is derived from the Bayesian nonparametric mixture of Dirichlet process model, but with suitable modifications which remove unsuitable aspects of…

Applications · Statistics 2009-05-05 Ruth Fuentes-Garcia , Ramses H Mena , Stephen G Walker

Many complex dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-18 Emily B. Fox , Erik B. Sudderth , Michael I. Jordan , Alan S. Willsky

The complex dynamics of physical systems can often be modeled with stochastic differential equations. However, computational constraints inhibit the estimation of dynamics from large time-series datasets. I present a method for estimating…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-11-02 William Davis

We consider the problem of the Bayesian inference of drift and diffusion coefficient functions in a stochastic differential equation given discrete observations of a realisation of its solution. We give conditions for the well-posedness and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-10 Jean-Charles Croix , Masoumeh Dashti , Istvàn Zoltàn Kiss

Recent advances have made it feasible to apply the stochastic variational paradigm to a collapsed representation of latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). While the stochastic variational paradigm has successfully been applied to an uncollapsed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-12-03 Arnim Bleier

Inverse problems and, in particular, inferring unknown or latent parameters from data are ubiquitous in engineering simulations. A predominant viewpoint in identifying unknown parameters is Bayesian inference where both prior information…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-31 Vahid Keshavarzzadeh , Robert M. Kirby , Akil Narayan

We propose Enhash, a fast ensemble learner that detects \textit{concept drift} in a data stream. A stream may consist of abrupt, gradual, virtual, or recurring events, or a mixture of various types of drift. Enhash employs projection hash…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-10 Aashi Jindal , Prashant Gupta , Debarka Sengupta , Jayadeva

In Continual Learning (CL) contexts, concept drift typically refers to the analysis of changes in data distribution. A drift in the input data can have negative consequences on a learning predictor and the system's stability. The majority…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Sebastian Basterrech

The article develops a hybrid Variational Bayes algorithm that combines the mean-field and fixed-form Variational Bayes methods. The new estimation algorithm can be used to approximate any posterior without relying on conjugate priors. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-09 David J Nott , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Anthony Y. C. Kuk , Robert Kohn

Drift theory is an intuitive tool for reasoning about random processes: It allows turning expected stepwise changes into expected first-hitting times. While drift theory is used extensively by the community studying randomized search…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-07 Andreas Göbel , Timo Kötzing , Martin S. Krejca

We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-26 Tobias Sutter , Arnab Ganguly , Heinz Koeppl

We present a nonparametric Bayesian joint model for multivariate continuous and categorical variables, with the intention of developing a flexible engine for multiple imputation of missing values. The model fuses Dirichlet process mixtures…

Applications · Statistics 2015-10-14 Jared S. Murray , Jerome P. Reiter

Traditional topic models do not account for semantic regularities in language. Recent distributional representations of words exhibit semantic consistency over directional metrics such as cosine similarity. However, neither categorical nor…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2016-04-04 Kayhan Batmanghelich , Ardavan Saeedi , Karthik Narasimhan , Sam Gershman

We propose a Bayesian test of normality for univariate or multivariate data against alternative nonparametric models characterized by Dirichlet process mixture distributions. The alternative models are based on the principles of embedding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-12 Surya T. Tokdar , Ryan Martin

The distribution of streaming data often changes over time as conditions change, a phenomenon known as concept drift. Only a subset of previous experience, collected in similar conditions, is relevant to learning an accurate classifier for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Ben Halstead , Yun Sing Koh , Patricia Riddle , Mykola Pechenizkiy , Albert Bifet

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these…

Data stream learning has been largely studied for extracting knowledge structures from continuous and rapid data records. In the semantic Web, data is interpreted in ontologies and its ordered sequence is represented as an ontology stream.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-04-26 Freddy Lecue , Jiaoyan Chen , Jeff Pan , Huajun Chen

We derive streamlined mean field variational Bayes algorithms for fitting linear mixed models with crossed random effects. In the most general situation, where the dimensions of the crossed groups are arbitrarily large, streamlining is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-15 Marianne Menictas , Gioia Di Credico , Matt P. Wand

Can evolving networks be inferred and modeled without directly observing their nodes and edges? In many applications, the edges of a dynamic network might not be observed, but one can observe the dynamics of stochastic cascading processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-26 Elahe Ghalebi , Baharan Mirzasoleiman , Radu Grosu , Jure Leskovec
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