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We study inference on linear functionals in the nonparametric instrumental variable (NPIV) problem with a discretely-valued instrument under a many-weak-instruments asymptotic regime, where the number of instrument values grows with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-05 Lars van der Laan , Nathan Kallus , Aurélien Bibaut

A novel data-driven method for formal verification is proposed to study complex systems operating in safety-critical domains. The proposed approach is able to formally verify discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems against temporal logic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-11 Zhi Zhang , Chenyu Ma , Saleh Soudijani , Sadegh Soudjani

Inference methods for computing confidence intervals in parametric settings usually rely on consistent estimators of the parameter of interest. However, it may be computationally and/or analytically burdensome to obtain such estimators in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-20 Samuel Orso , Mucyo Karemera , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser , Stéphane Guerrier

We provide new results for nonparametric identification, estimation, and inference of causal effects using `proxy controls': observables that are noisy but informative proxies for unobserved confounding factors. Our analysis applies to…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-22 Ben Deaner

Generalization outside the scope of one's training data requires leveraging prior knowledge about the effects that transfer, and the effects that don't, between different data sources. Transfer learning is a framework for specifying and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Sabina J. Sloman , Julien Martinelli , Samuel Kaski

This paper gives a precise characterization of the fundamental limits of adaptive sensing for diverse estimation and testing problems concerning sparse signals. We consider in particular the setting introduced in (IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-16 Rui M. Castro

We introduce a proxy-reliance-controlled conformal recalibration framework for one-sided Value-at-Risk (VaR), and study a question that existing state-aware methods do not usually isolate: how strongly should the recalibration adjustment…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-25 Tenghan Zhong

Variational inference is a powerful tool for approximate inference. However, it mainly focuses on the evidence lower bound as variational objective and the development of other measures for variational inference is a promising area of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-06 Michael Figurnov , Kirill Struminsky , Dmitry Vetrov

Proximal causal inference (PCI) is a recently proposed framework to identify and estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of hidden confounders, using observed proxies. Specifically, PCI relies on two types of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Prabrisha Rakshit , Xu Shi , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Nonparametric Instrumental Variables (NPIV) analysis is based on a conditional moment restriction. We show that if this moment condition is even slightly misspecified, say because instruments are not quite valid, then NPIV estimates can be…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-13 Ben Deaner

We investigate inference in a latent binary variable model where a noisy proxy of the latent variable is available, motivated by the variable perturbation effectiveness problem in single-cell CRISPR screens. The baseline approach is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Louis Deutsch , Eugene Katsevich

Distinguishing causal connections from correlations is important in many scenarios. However, the presence of unobserved variables, such as the latent confounder, can introduce bias in conditional independence testing commonly employed in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-03 Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Yu Qiao , Yizhou Wang

Anomalous sound detection (ASD) typically involves self-supervised proxy tasks to learn feature representations from normal sound data, owing to the scarcity of anomalous samples. In ASD research, proxy tasks such as AutoEncoders operate…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-14 Seunghyeon Shin , Seokjin Lee

We develop sensitivity analyses for weak nulls in matched observational studies while allowing unit-level treatment effects to vary. The methods may be applied to studies using any optimal without-replacement matching algorithm. In contrast…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-18 Colin B. Fogarty

Large VARs are increasingly used in structural analysis as a unified framework to study the impacts of multiple structural shocks simultaneously. However, the concurrent identification of multiple shocks using sign and ranking restrictions…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-27 Joshua Chan , Christian Matthes , Xuewen Yu

Inferring causal structures from time series data is the central interest of many scientific inquiries. A major barrier to such inference is the problem of subsampling, i.e., the frequency of measurement is much lower than that of causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Lingjing Hu , Yizhou Wang

Non-invasive surface wave methods have become a popular alternative to traditional invasive forms of site-characterization for inferring a site's subsurface shear wave velocity (Vs) structure. The advantage of surface wave methods over…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-04-06 Joseph P. Vantassel , Brady R. Cox

Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) is widely used in empirical work in economics and other disciplines. As Gaussian approximations perform poorly in the presence of "small denominators," trimming is routinely employed as a regularization…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-05-28 Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang

Nonlinear causal effects are prevalent in many research scenarios involving continuous exposures, and instrumental variables (IVs) can be employed to investigate such effects, particularly in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Haodong Tian , Ashish Patel , Stephen Burgess

A common practice in IV studies is to check for instrument strength, i.e. its association to the treatment, with an F-test from regression. If the F-statistic is above some threshold, usually 10, the instrument is deemed to satisfy one of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-17 Nan Bi , Hyunseung Kang , Jonathan Taylor
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